Bespoke: Fourth Quarter Often Brings Bigger Gains for the S&P 500
The S&P 500 has been on a strong run in 2025 — up about 13% year to date and hitting fresh record highs this month. Now, it’s entering what has historically been its best quarter, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Since 1928, the index has averaged a 2.1% gain per quarter. But the fourth quarter stands out, with a stronger average gain of 2.9%. That performance has been even better in years when the S&P 500 was already up through the first three quarters.
In those cases, Bespoke found the index averaged a 4.4% fourth-quarter return, posting gains more than 83% of the time.
The firm noted that this outperformance has become more pronounced over the last three decades. Currently, the benchmark is on track for its fifth straight monthly advance, with third-quarter gains topping 7% through Monday.
Investors are also weighing macroeconomic factors as Q4 begins. The Fed cut rates earlier this month and flagged risks to the labor market, while GDP growth was revised higher to 3.8% in Q2.
Meanwhile, a looming government shutdown could delay the release of Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
On Monday, stocks closed higher: the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5%, and the Dow added 0.1%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
