Free Trading Method & Forecast Strategy: 2020 January Effect

We’ve posted about the predictive/forecast method called the January Effect for a number of years. Now that we’re at the end of January 2020, we can soon look to use this long-term, historical method to predict if price will ascend to new heights by the end of 2020. This information is useful for futures, options, currency, and stock traders.

To summarize how the January Effect works, we look at the E-mini S&P 500 price value at the start of the 2020 (January 2, 2020). We compare the value with price on the last day of trading for the month, January 31, 2020. If the later price is higher, we say the January Effect has predicted that 2020 will be an “up year.” By “up year,” we mean that in December 2020, the E-mini (and other important market derivatives/measures) will close higher for the year than the closing price in January 2020. To put it simply, if January was an up month, we expect 2020 to be an up year overall. That said, there are no guarantees the January Effect will be correct. However, we have found it useful for identifying long-term breakout buy/long opportunities as we have chronicled in past videos.

As discussed in this video, price is currently near levels in early January. There are a few days left in the month. Watch how price performs on January 31, 2020 to see if 2020 is considered an up year. If price closes lower, we will say that there is no January Effect in play for 2020. Yes, the year may actually end up higher, we just don’t have the historical benefit/indication of the January Effect.

Based on the Jan. Effect, when should one buy? We wait for price to break previous highs. This may include swing trading. We also wait for a four-day retracement. Please watch the video to get a better sense of how this free trading method works. The explanation of placing trades related to the January Effect begins around 4:00 in the video. To better understand how this all works, use 2019 as an example, as John Paul did. Also, you can configure NinjaTrader’s Fibonacci tool to show horizontal lines for 0%, 50%, and 100% of a drawn distance, which is a good visual aid to identify areas to place trades.

Scalping Rules for Risk & Reward

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At the start of the video, take a look at the two nice Trade Scalper signals using a 2-Range chart with NinjaTrader. On a 2-Range chart, each bar (aka candle) represents 2 ticks of ranging price activity over time (however long it takes to plot each bar based on volatility). At around 2:42, the later trade results in a four tick (1 point) win.

When scalping, timing is important, but always have a profit target and stop in mind. We use NinjaTrader’s ATM Strategy feature to predefine these values. This way, when we place an order on the DOM, we have a premade ATM Strategy selected so we don’t have to fiddle with values when fast entry is important. For this Trade Scalper method, we’ll tell you what values to use for ATM Strategies, etc.

Once you’re in a trade, try to refrain from moving your profit target and stop loss values. Doing so will put you “at the back of the line,” essentially. Orders are to be processed first-come, first-served. Also, avoid using stops > 2x your profit target. It’s probably too much risk and a sudden unfavorable move can greatly impact your trading account. Too small of a stop loss is also a problem because “normal” market movement can stop you out prematurely.

Scalping is a great way to minimize your time in a position. Trading always involves risk, so the less time you spend with an open trade, the less risk. We often recommend our Trade Scalper method for this reason. The strategy is “in and out” whenever price action says, “there’s a trade here.”

2 Futures Charts at Once: Atlas Line & Trade Scalper

Visit our trading courses page to compare the Atlas Line and Trade Scalper or purchase both so you can trade like John Paul, here.

Let’s put two charts side-by-side: the Atlas Line on the left and the Trade Scalper on the right. As you can see, the Trade Scalper chart on the right already has a signal (in purple). No signals appear yet for the Atlas Line. The reason why we’re showing both systems is that many traders prefer combining these methods. The Atlas Line is good for signals and providing an overall direction of expected price activity. Using that information, you can confirm (i.e. get a second opinion for) Trade Scalper trades.

At about 2:00 in, you’ll hear a doorbell sound that corresponds with an Atlas Line Long signal. The buy (long) signal occurs when price is at 3305.25. The idea is to quickly place a trade according to the signal. John Paul believes the anticipated upward price climb (based on the Atlas Line signal) also matches up with a retracement, whereby price climbs back up to test prior highs.

Remember the market has a different attitude or behavior depending on volatility. Over time, you may notice a certain personality emerge during slow activity and also when fast. We adjust our profit target and stop-loss values based on current market conditions. This means we want to trade based on realistic values that we believe the market can “afford” to give us.

Jump to 5:25 and you’ll see a Trade Scalper signal. We have the indicator also set up to use the doorbell sound. The Trade Scalper goes for more trades but of lesser value (three to four ticks on average) as compared to the Atlas Line. The Atlas Line, in comparison, may produce a couple of primary Dbl Bar Long or Short signals per day on average.

Should You Follow Every Trading Signal?

If you want to get the same signals, purchase the Trade Scalper here.

Could you afford your lifestyle by trading two to three times a day only? Or is it better to take a dozen trades just because your trading system says so What time of day is best or how can we filter losing trades for better results?

These are questions you probably asked yourself if you’ve been day trading or practicing for some time. Firstly, avoid closing time or the afternoon where the market can behave more erratically than normal or become too slow. Note that the chart time in the video is US/Eastern (EST). Also, consider incorporating a time-based stop. No matter what, if a certain amount of time has passed, be ready to get yourself out of the trade. Hanging in a trade for too long out of desperation or misplaced confidence can be an expensive play. Take advantage of NinjaTrader’s ATM STrategy feature so your predefined stop loss and profit target value(s) are automatically used. And no, you should not take every trade that your system/indicator produces. Typically, trading systems will continue to produce signals in less than optimal conditions. This is where your training comes in, or at least if you’re one of our clients.

Jump to 58 seconds into the video to see four consecutive winning Trade Scalper signals. And then around 2:00, see the fifth Trade Scalper trade of the day for demonstration purposes. Keep in mind, you may not want to trade five times per day. If you have success and made a decent profit with the first couple of trades, it may be better to minimize risk and walk away with your wins. At 3:17, you’ll see the sixth trade of the day. Yes, there was still time to trade (slow afternoon conditions had not yet occurred). Again, you may not want to take that many trades.

Day Trading Order Types Explained (Video)

In day trading, other than the pursuit of making money, the one thing that confounds traders the most is order placement. Placing orders is a requirement for day trading. A person places a buy or sell order with the hopes of making money. Sounds easy, right? Well, there are different types of orders and each one behaves differently. You should know what’s available to you. For example, some order types may work best for some situations and not others. In this video, we’ll teach you about the differences and use.

What are the different order types? Discussed in the video, you have market orders, limit orders, MIT orders, stop orders, and stop limit (also called stop with limit) orders. Depending on your trading platform, you may have all or some of those order types available to use with buying or selling.

Sometimes, you may want to get into a position (aka get into a trade) at a given moment. A market order will do this. It’s probably the easiest to understand. Essentially, you get into a trade wherever the price is soon (almost instantly) after clicking the Market button in either the Buy or Sell column of the NinjaTrader SuperDOM (pictured in the video on the right side of the screen).

In other cases, you may want to get into a trade when price reaches a certain value or one more favorable. This can be accomplished with a limit or MIT order as explained at 3:40 in the video. Please take a moment to watch the full 15 minutes, as it could save you time and potentially money (in case you could be using more appropriate order types for your style of trading).

Scalping Trade Worth 3-4 Ticks

Here’s a trade from this morning, Monday, December 16, 2019. We’re using a 2 Range chart to look at the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) in the NinjaTrader 8 trading platform. The Trade Scalper is an indicator that we sell. It’s applied to the chart. The indicator provides trading signals; mainly long (buy) or short (sell). As a trader, you would be waiting for a signal to occur just like John Paul is in the video.

Click here to purchase the Trade Scalper or take part in our eight-week Mentorship class that includes the Trade Scalper and many other methods in one complete package.

At about 40 seconds, you’ll hear a doorbell sound that accompanies the long (buy) signal. When a long signal occurs, we can place a trade and hope price increases (moves up). We teach you specific rules on how to place trades, including how to manage risk. Mainly, this is accomplished through the use of a profit target and stop loss. A profit target is what your goal is for profit. Ahead of time, you should know what your profit target is by looking at current market conditions. We feel it’s better to see what the market “can do” at a given time rather than use a huge profit target when the market is slow (which would be very risky). We think our approach in using the ATR (Average True Range) to get a sense of volatility is a more realistic approach.

Back to the chart, once the order is filled (trade is placed), you can see the profit target as a green line. The stop loss is the red line. At about 3:37 in the video, you can see the trade worked out well. The profit target was “hit.” This would have been a profitable trade.

How to Install NinjaTrader 8 Indicators

We’ll show you how to install NinjaTrader 8 indicators easily in this video. First, you must find an indicator to download and then import it. What is an indicator? It’s a trading tool that plugs into your chart to give you trading signals or other information to help you trade. We have a number of indicators. Take a look at the Trade Scalper, ATO 2, and Atlas Line. Also, we have an eight-week coaching program called Mentorship that provides access to all trading indicators with Lifetime Licenses.

If you’ve purchased one of our indicators, great! If not, you can download a free trading indicator from our downloads page. Once the indicator file is downloaded, remember where the indicator file has been downloaded! You’ll need to navigate to this folder later within NinjaTrader (in order to import the indicator). By the way, most indicators are offered as .zip files. .Zip is a file type that compresses multiple files within a single file. In Windows 10, .zip files behave a lot like regular folders aka directories. Good news – when it comes to importing indicators, NinjaTrader expects a .zip file. In other words, don’t do a darn thing with that downloaded indicator! Leave it as-is, as the indicator .zip file itself is what you’ll be imported into Ninja.

Okay, so you have the downloaded indicator and you know where it is located on your computer. Next, open NinjaTrader and go to NinjaTrader Control Center > Tools > Import > NinjaScript Add-On…

This will produce what we call an “open dialogue window” in Windows. Using the open window, navigate to the folder containing the indicator .zip that you downloaded earlier. This is the tricky part for some folks. Often times, you’ll need to use the left panel to click the Downloads folder. Some people download files to their Desktop folder, so check there as well if you have no luck in Downloads. After selecting the indicator .zip, you should see a success message.

At this stage, the indicator has been imported into Ninja. Now, it’s just a matter of adding the indicator to your chart. To do this, right-click your chart > Indicators > scroll until you see the indicator that you imported and double-click it. Note that sometimes indicators have unusual or entirely different “internal” names compared to the indicator file name. That means you may need to take extra care when visually scanning for the indicator within the indicator list. As a general rule, we prefix our Ninja 8 indicators with “DTTW8”. The indicator list is alphabetical. Once you find the indicator, double-click it. In the bottom left panel, you should see the indicator. Click it in case it’s not already selected. Now on the right side/panel, you should see the indicator’s settings have become accessible. Here, configure the indicator as recommended or as desired. Each indicator is different, so follow the directions from the indicator author. Once you’ve configured the indicator, click OK. At this point, the indicator should appear on the chart.

Pre-Market Trading: Have You Tried It?

Click here to get the Trade Scalper (same signals as in video)

Typically, trading pre-market is too slow. Sitting in a trade for an hour waiting for action increases risk. As long as volatility exists, you should be okay to trade. Review your charts to see volatility associated with Asia and Europe, for example. In the video, you’ll see a number of Trade Scalper signals that occurred before the market “opened” at 9:30 a.m. EST. If the market moved during that time with decent volatility, feel free to trade.

Remember that we typically use the ATR indicator with a Period setting of 4 to gauge volatility. Recall that in a recent blog post, we recommended the avoidance of trading during the first 10 to 15 minutes after the market opens. This is especially true when scalping. As the goals of scalping are small wins, a minor fluctuation in price activity would easily hit your stop loss, nevermind a large move.

What happens when you take a trade (based on a long signal) and then receive a short signal? According to John Paul, with the Trade Scalper at least, you exit the long position and go short, following the latest signal/information from the indicator software.

In summary, trade pre-market is permissible when conditions are volatile enough. Such conditions may be present around the open of those exchanges or instruments/markets. However, be aware that the first 15 minutes or so may subject you to greater risk. Indeed, the first 15 minutes are a volatile time.

Scalping Risk Management for Day Traders

The Trade Scalper has been doing well on a day-to-day basis. Based on the emails we’ve received, our clients have been happy. Watch this video to see a real-time trade in combination with a review of many recent Trade Scalper signals. Get the Trade Scalper for your own charts or review our other offerings, including our eight-week Mentorship Coaching Program!

Right away, you can see the Trade Scalper software running on the NinjaTrader platform. We often use it with a 2-Range chart, as seen here. There was s a Long signal earlier around 9:35 a.m. US/Eastern. Be careful with signals that occur soon after the market opens, as there are many factors out of your control within the first 10 or so minutes. Scalping with small stops during this volatile period may well cause a premature exit.

With this method, you will see many signals per day. You don’t have to trade them all. For example, we prefer the trades that happen earlier than after market hours.

In real-time, watch the second signal and the resulting trade that occurred around 9:46 a.m. US/Eastern. He’s in the trade for over 10 minutes, as explained at about 3:12. This is longer than usual, though 20 or so minutes is typically the max. Fortunately, at about 3:39, the profit target was hit.

If you’re interested in checking out the ATO 2 and Atlas Line, jump to 3:55 in the video. Signals are shared.

Real-time Price Signals: Win, Lose, or Draw

What’s missing from your trading configuration? You may have the right platform, but do you have the right technique? In this video, we are using the Atlas Line and ATO 2 together on a 5-minute chart. Using these two indicators (see our courses/software page), we can look for confirmation. For example, this video’s two long (buy) signals are what we call confirmation. Will the trade be a winner?

All of our trading methods are focused on price action. That means we consider the immediate price activity as the main indicator of what we should do in a given moment. Many traditional indicators do not take this approach. You may have heard of stochastics, MACD, or moving averages. Often times, these approaches use what we call “old” data and may increase unnecessary risk or are inaccurate methods.

At about 2:30 in the video, take a look at all of the good Trade Scalper signals. For that method, we use a 2 Range chart, which is why the candles look a bit different.

Sure, you could purchase the ATO 2, Trade Scalper, and Atlas Line all with Lifetime licenses separately. But for that amount and all you get with the 8-week all-inclusive Mentorship Program, Mentorship is a better deal by far. For example, with Mentorship, you also get the Roadmap which is typically never sold separately. Other exclusive methods are reserved for Mentorship as well. The next class begins Dec. 3, 2019. Click here to enroll or learn more.

All trades should be considered hypothetical. No guarantees or claims of performance are offered. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Day trading is risky and may cause substantial financial loss. Individual performance may vary, as trading subjects your finances to new, unexpected market conditions. You are responsible for executing trades. Before trading, consult with a licensed broker and a financial expert see if day trading is suitable for you.