Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
The next holiday in the CME calendar is President’s Day, which occurs Monday, February 18, 2019. A similar halt and resumption will occur then.
As always, be careful trading on and around holidays. Markets can be unexpectedly slow or fast. Also, you don’t want to be in a position, have the market close, and have to place an emergency call with your broker to see if you’re in any danger.
How has your trading been so far in 2019? December 2018 was a month of steady bearish activity, taking price low to unexpected levels. So far in 2019, things are looking up. In this 2019 Atlas Line video, you can see how the Atlas Line produced two successful signals.
The Atlas Line software consists of the blue line and signals seen in the video. When price moves through the line and two candles close, a long or short signal is generated. You’ll know exactly when a signal will occur, so you can prepare in advance. From that point, it’s a matter of following the rules. The included training video explains it all.
Often, the Atlas Line can be used as an indication of support or resistance. Price tends to “bounce” off the Atlas Line. We tend to think this activity further validates anticipated market direction.
When you’re in a profitable position, it’s tempting to hold on for too long. The market can suddenly go against you and leave you with a smaller profit or worse. It’s important that you stick to the rules and have the discipline to know when to lock in profits and get out.
Practice is super important. Once you are a customer, we can assist you further with setting up a real-time practice environment. That way, you can feel comfortable before risking real money in the markets.
Make sure you watch the full video for a coupon code! Then click here to visit the Atlas Line page.
Today, we’re going to continue the series of short, but powerful, video lectures on day trading using price action. We will produce longer, more detailed and thorough videos for you later, but I want to introduce the topics in short and simple videos first.
Last time I told you about how I came in contact with day trading using price action and how I became successful with technical analysis some 25 years ago. There are many different topics in the “field” of price action that we will need to go through one-by-one. Today, I want us to focus our attention on TRENDS. I don’t know if this is the obvious topic to start with. It might not be, but at the end of the day, trends are going to be the thing that makes you the money in trading, so I think it is a good choice of topic
So, if you look at a chart – whether it is a candlestick chart, a simple line chart or an OHLC bar chart – you will see that the markets always move in waves. It doesn’t matter if you chart the S&P 500, futures, commodities, currencies or stocks – you will see that the price goes up for a while, then starts moving down and then moves up again. And that kind of movement continues all day, every day. It does not matter if you look at a minute chart, a 5-minute chart, or an hourly chart – you can even
In this series of videos and articles on price action trading you are going to learn principles that apply to all markets and all time frames. So that’s pretty COOL.
I have been both an equity options trader at an american trading firm, and a private day trader. I’ve been a swing trader and an investor. And I have used the same knowledge, the same techniques all the time for the past 25 years. So what you are going to learn is truly universal, so it is not something that will work sometimes on some specific stock or futures contract.
So we know that the markets move in waves the price goes up for a while and then down for a while, then up again, and then down again. I call these “up waves” and “down waves.”
Sometimes the market moves upwards longer and with more force, more power when it is in an “up wave”, and then just moves down a little when it turns into a down wave and when that happens during more and more up waves and down waves this price action will form an “
You can say that the chart is a “battleground” between buyers and sellers between bulls and bears. If the bulls are winning the battle, then the market moves upwards. An uptrend is formed. We will go through this “battle” between bulls and bears in a later video.
So in the uptrend the bulls are winning the battle, but the war will continue – that’s for sure.
And that means if the bears start winning you will get a downtrend. You will have the same principles at play in downtrends. The down waves are bigger and stronger than the up waves, so this time the trend is downwards. So in other words, when you have a series of stronger up waves or stronger down waves, the market will establish a trend.
If the trend is downwards, you can have up waves forming “rallies” upwards, but as long as the major trend is downwards (stronger down waves), those rallies will fade and the market will reverse and continue downwards.
So if the bears are more and stronger than the bulls, then you will have a down trend. At some point in time all trends will come to an end. When that happens, sometimes the market will just consolidate and move sideways for some time. That means you can also have sideways trends, where the up waves and down waves are similar in size and force, or you can have two small down waves, and one big up wave.
So each up move and each down move take each other out it is a tie between bulls and bears. In “Wyckoff method” theory (“The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique“) – these sideways channels are called areas of accumulation or distribution. Meaning that either the buyers are accumulating their positions – they’re buying stocks or contracts that they want to sell later at a profit. Or sellers are distributing their holdings, that they bought earlier. So these are ideas and methods developed by Richard Demille Wyckoff in the 1920-1930s, and that is a foundation in my analysis and trading. I will go through more of the Richard D. Wyckoff method in this series.
Anyway, The great thing about up trends, down trends or sideways trends is that you can profit regardless of the direction that the market is going. As we move forward in this series you will learn techniques to use in up trends, down trends and sideways markets. This was the first lecture on trends. Next time, we will look at a little bit more advanced trend analysis and I will introduce some ideas how you can gauge and measure the force of the trends. How you can determine if the stock market trend is healthy and likely to continue, or if the price trend appears to be reversing soon?
So please subscribe to our YouTube channel to get access to the next video. I’d love to hear comments and feedback on this series, so please comment and like the videos, and make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Our next 8-
This will be a series of videos and articles about price action and how to trade using price action, instead of using indicators.
When you browse through the web looking for information on day trading, you will very often come across pages or videos with charts that look something like THIS or THIS…
But, when you see charts like this you can be sure that almost always the trader who uses those types of charts are just trying to overcompensate for his lack of confidence in his analysis, OR simply put… that he does not know what he is doing. He is probably not very successful. I don’t like to badmouth other people, but that is my strong belief.
Because, I speak from personal experience.
I started with trading and chart analysis back in 1995. I still remember how I learned about day trading, and I still remember my very first trade! When I started out, I also thought that I needed to use charts like that with many different indicators that would tell me if there was a trend and if the trend was strong, when that trend was going to end, when it would lose steam. I would also be worried about one indicator not giving me the correct outlook so I would use another indicator that would confirm or reject the first one…and so on…
Pretty stupid. But hey, that’s easy to say in hindsight!
In a discussion I had some years later with an experienced trader who would later be my trading mentor, I asked him how I could become as successful as he was. The answer I got was kind of strange to me at the time, and to be honest I really didn’t understand the implications it would have on my trading back then, but what he said was, “The first thing you need to do is to remove every indicator that you have in your chart.”
I was like, “What?” How would I be able to find any trades without indicators, without the MACDs, RSIs and moving averages?
In wanting to become a day trader, I took his advice because I REALLY wanted to become a successful day trader. I got rid of everything except Open High Low Close bar charts and Volume. Most traders today use candlestick charts, but I use the OHLC bars. They tell you the same thing, but candlestick charts can actually provide a bit more information that you usually don’t have with the bar charts, and that’s the hollow candlestick vs. the solid candlestick. But it doesn’t matter – you can be successful with OHLC bars and you can be successful with candlesticks. If I would begin day trading today, I would probably pick candlesticks, but I’m just used to the
OHLC bars after looking at them for close to 25 years.
Anyway, looking at those “naked” charts without any indicator, at
I also noticed that there was something going on with the price bars themselves. Sometimes they would be very long and sometimes they would be very narrow. Sometimes the price bars would be huge and the volume would be huge at the same time. Sometimes the price bars would be very narrow but the volume would be huge. What was going on? The price bars could form a short trend and the volume would increase for each bar until the volume spiked and there was a certain type of bar that formed the top of that trend, of that wave. Then, after the price had consolidated for a while, the price bars started forming a similar short term trend but it didn’t get far this time. Looking at the volume I could see that it did not increase the way it had done the previous time. Something was definitely up with the relationship between price and volume. I became totally intrigued with this idea of only using price bars and volume, instead of looking at indicators and lines. The more I studied charts the more details I noticed. I could see different types of bars, different behaviour of the volume, I could notice different stages of the market, uptrends, downtrends and sideways moves, all with distinct price action that would repeat every time. I knew I had struck gold!
There will be more on this topic next time, I will continue this series of price action analysis videos, so please subscribe to our Youtube channel now and stay updated when the videos are released.
Today is E-mini
So how does one roll over? NinjaTrader 8 makes it easy:
Go to the NinjaTrader Control Center > Tools > Database Management.
Providing you are rolling over on or after the market’s rollover date, the market should appear in the “rollover futures instruments” list. The list shows all markets that will be rolled over along with the current and new contract periods. Click the Rollover button. Click Yes if a message appears.
Go back to your charts. They should now be rolled over, where applicable. Verify this by looking at the top of the chart. For example, if you have an E-mini (ES) chart, it should no longer be ES 12-18. Instead, you should see ES 03-19.
Note that when you open up a new chart, you probably won’t see the ES 03-19 at the top of the selection list (among recent instruments). You’ll need to go to Futures > ES 03-19. In comparison, any existing charts that you had open at the time of the rollover should now reflect the new contract period.
Other platforms may roll over automatically, so keep that in mind.
Now, what about those upcoming holiday hours? Yes, CME equity products )(like the E-mini) will close early for the Christmas and New Year holidays. See the official CME calendars. To spare you the trouble of using Microsoft Excel to open the calendar files, here’s what you should know (all times are US/Eastern, GMT-5, EST, New York time):
December 24, 2018 (Christmas Eve): markets close @ 1:15 p.m.
December 25, 2018 (Christmas Day): markets remain closed until 6:00 p.m.
December 31, 2018 (New Year’s Eve): markets close regularly at 5:00 p.m.
January 1, 2019 (New Year’s Day): markets remain closed until 6:00 p.m.
The next upcoming holiday mentioned on the CME is Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, which occurs later in January.
You’ve probably heard about how 90% of traders lose money. The actual statistical range is anyone’s guess. To know with some certainty, a study would need to be carried out. It’s doubtful that a broker or other type of firm would want to go on the record admitting that their customers are unsuccessful with the markets. Further, there is little motivation for someone to voluntarily complete a survey about personal financial matters.
E-mini S&P 500 (ES) 5-Min Chart
Some traders like to use multiple strategies together to “confirm” the direction of the market. The idea is that multiple systems that say the same thing may indicate a greater chance the market will move in the anticipated direction. Here is a screenshot of an E-mini S&P 500 chart that illustrates this idea. The trade that was “confirmed” by two nearby signals (Atlas Line and ATO 2 long signals) was good. The Atlas Line short trade earlier in the day was good. The market soon turned against the ATO 2 trade that occurred in the middle. See our products page to learn more about trading strategies that may compliment your existing approach.
Are we in the dark in terms of understanding how many people are truly successful? Considering the following. From the various day trading courses and software out there, we can see there is definitely interest (and business) in fulfilling a need to help people trade better. We can reasonably conclude that day trading must involve some level of difficulty that exceeds the skill of most people. Otherwise, most day traders would, in short order, figure out how the markets work and trade them profitably. There would likely be far fewer trading businesses, as self-taught traders would have little need to look elsewhere. If trading was easy, we would see it become a much more popular career or income option. Obviously, this is not the case.
Therefore, trading is not easy and education should be sought. Aside from the problem of maintaining profitability, aspiring traders must climb a rather steep learning curve.
In no particular order, a successful trader needs:
1. Basic computer and operating system proficiency
2. A basic understanding of trading terminology
3. An understanding of how to use a trading platform
4. A way to practice trading (including time set aside to learn)
5. An effective trading strategy (or strategies) to use
At DayTradeToWin.com, we service all five components. From what we have seen over the years, most other day trading companies focus mainly on the fifth. Yes, we do answer basic computer questions that we get from our clients. Many of our clients from a Mac background and need some help getting familiar with Windows. Yes, it is up to you to make sure you have enough time in your life/schedule to practice. However, we help provide you with the tools you need to practice with real-time market conditions. Our free educational videos cover terminology, free methods, and general platform use. Our products are designed to help you get to the ultimate goal of finding consistent success. Remember that we cannot provide guarantees. We do not have a crystal ball. The markets can and will do the exact opposite of what is expected. As such, people who try to sell you trading methods with guarantees may not have your best interests in mind.
To help you further, based on a bit of research and our own experiences, we’ve assembled a top 5 list of considerations to improve your trading (in no particular order):
1. Successful trading = proper money management and proper risk management. Don’t trade with rent or food money. Trade based on what real-time market conditions can reasonably provide. If the market is slow, do not expect that big winning trade. Similarly, if the market is fast, that small (lower risk) stop loss may get you out prematurely when staying in for a few more minutes may have produced a profit.
2. Does your trading strategy fit your personality? When people ask us to recommend the Atlas Line, ATO 2, Trade Scalper, or Mentorship, we tend to describe how each one behaves. Some people would rather go for fewer, larger trades than watch a 1-min chart for many trades. In that case, the Atlas Line may be a better fit than the Trade Scalper. Other people like the control the Trade Scalper provides for each trade because of the smaller profit targets and stop losses.
3. Psychology is a real factor. Do not let your ego or feelings dictate your trading. Trying to win back losses can put you in an even worse situation. Instead, it may be better to stop trading for the day and continue the next with a clearer head. Had a bunch of success in the markets today? Congratulations, but don’t get greedy. You can lose it all and more if you don’t know when to call it quits. Follow the rules of the trading strategy, not your impulses. Approach each new potential trade with the same amount of discretion. Have realistic goals and define your limits. Be rational.
4. Markets are unpredictable. If they were predictable, you would probably not be the first to figure it all out. Expect losses to occur, no matter how good you think your strategy is. Always have a reasonable profit target and stop loss ready to go. Be patient. Just because you missed an opportunity does not mean you should jump
5. Practice, practice, practice. You need to practice with real-time market conditions. NinjaTrader makes this type of practice really accessible, which is one of the reasons we like the platform. Avoid referencing historical data to say, “Yeah, I would have done that. I’ve got a winning approach here.” Use your platform’s performance record tools and/or keep a trading journal. Write what works for you and what doesn’t. Develop your own sense of judgement to complement the strategy that you are using.
Have questions about anything in this article or trading in general? Email us at [email protected] for assistance.
Did you take this Atlas Line trade today? What about the follow-up Strength (S) and Pullback (P) trades? If not, consider purchasing the Atlas Line to receive the same automated trading signals.
If you’re new to the Atlas Line, let’s break down what we’re looking at on the chart. Firstly, the Atlas Line plugs into NinjaTrader as an indicator. Once added to the chart, it will plot signals depending on price’s behavior in relationship with the plotted line. When two signals occur above the line, a Long signal will appear. When two signals appear below, a Short signal appears, as is the case here. Today’s short signal for the E-mini S& 500 (ES 12-18 in NinjaTrader) appeared around 10:00 a.m. EDT (GMT-4, New York time). This allowed plenty of room to get in on a winning short trade. According to the rules, you use the ATR (Average True Range) to determine the profit target and stop loss. This Short trade looks like it would have been worth well over three points. The reason for using the ATR is to allow a flexible profit and loss goal that’s based on recent price activity.
If price does not intersect and close twice on the opposing side of the line, you can still look for additional signals. These are the Strength and Pullback signals mentioned earlier. The rules for trading these are taught in the included training video and live training.
Many traders tell us they like the Atlas Line because of its mechanical nature. When a system takes the guesswork out of trading, there can be less stress and tendency to second-guess.
We offer two different license options: a 6-Month or Lifetime. If you want to upgrade to the Lifetime License, let us know within the first 30 days of your 6-Month purchase. We’ll gladly apply your 6-Month purchase credit towards your Lifetime upgrade.
Questions? Let us know! Our email is [email protected]
How is your trading lately? Hopefully, your winners have been more sizable than the losing trades. Before checking out those feedback emails, take a look at this video that discusses ways to potentially avoid trading risk…
Also, here’s a number of screenshots of recent emails we received from our clients. It’s a good sign when someone continues to our methods long after the original purchase! Did you know that we offer discounts towards Mentorship based on past purchases? That’s right – if you purchased one or more of our trading methods in the past (Atlas Line, Trade Scalper, ATO 2, etc.), we can provide a discount towards our eight-week Mentorship Program. Our next class begins tomorrow, Oct. 9, 2018. It’s not too late to register. Click here for details.
We blurred out sensitive info.
Enroll in tomorrow’s Mentorship Program before the final seats are taken!
Do you trade CME U.S. futures/indexes like the E-mini S&P 500? Well, it’s time to roll over your contracts again! The official rollover date is Sep. 13, 2018. You may have seen the reminder when starting up NinjaTrader earlier today. The NinjaTrader platform requires that you manually roll over your contracts. Fortunately, the steps are rather straightforward. We will be using thhe E-mini (ES in NinjaTrader) as an example).
Before we continue, just an update from one of our Mentorship students who found success when she traded using real money…
Want to learn the same strategies and get all of our courses and software, too? The next class starts Sep. 18, 2018. Click here for more details.
Back to the rollover…
Firstly, this rollover from ES 09-18 to ES 12-18 occurs on Sep. 13, 2018. If you try to roll over on Sep. 12, 2018, you probably won’t be able to select ES 12-18 as an option. On Sep. 13, 2018, before you start trading the ES, it may be wise to roll over your contracts. Some traders wait even longer, preferring to switch once the volatility has “transferred” to the new contract period. This usually occurs within a few days after the official rollover date. These traders prefer to trade whatever contract period has the most liquidity. We’ll leave it up to you. If you want to monitor ES volume, here’s the CME page to do it. Don’t wait until the actual ES expiration date, which is Sep. 21, 2018. See all future roll and expiration dates on this CME page. The next time you’ll need to roll over is Dec. 21, 2018.
How to Roll Over Contracts in NinjaTrader
1. In NinjaTrader’s Control Center, go to Tools > Database Management. The Database window should appear.
2. Providing you are following these steps on or after Sep., 13, 2018, you should see row for the ES and possibily other markets. NinjaTrader automatically detects which markets (aka instruments) need to be rolled over and lists them here. All you need to do is click the Rollover button and close the window. NinjaTrader will roll over everything listed.
3. Your ES chart(s) may automatically switch over to the ES 12-18. Check the top-left area of the chart window and see if ES 12-18 is displayed rather than the old ES 09-18.
…that’s pretty much it!
Are you still not signed up for our eight-week training program? Our Mentorship Program teaches all of our trading methods in one comprehensive package. Training is twice a week. The next Group Mentorship class begins Sep. 18, 2018. Click here to enroll or find out more
In Group Mentorship, you can type your questions and get instant answers. One of our students completed the eight-week class and said some nice things about her experiences. See the screenshot below.
In case you’re wondering, we use Adobe Connect to conduct the training sessions. Adobe Connect is a webinar platform. We forwarded the chat log of this session to ourselves to take the screenshot.
In Mentorship, you can learn all of the same strategies she learned. All courses and software are included. The goal is for you to become a pro trader by the end of eight weeks. Aside from the live training aspect, you can log in and watch the recorded videos at your leisure long after the program is over. Of course, we offer continued email support for trading questions.
Also, we have a new trading video (see below) posted that shows the very popular Trade Scalper strategy. In case you’re new to trading, scalping is an approach that focuses on quick trades with the goal of making many small profits. The presenter here goes through a number of recent signals, showing both winning and losing trades. Click here to see the Trade Scalper or click here to see all of our offerings compared.
