“This is where it’s fun. This is where it’s scary,” says veteran commodities analyst Alexander Campbell.
The former head of commodities at hedge-fund heavyweight Bridgewater says silver faces several short-term obstacles that investors may want to see resolved before adding exposure.
That’s how Campbell — once a global macro investor at Bridgewater and now founder and CEO of Black Snow Capital — frames the current trading landscape for silver, which has surged roughly 25% in December alone.
Silver has delivered a staggering 156% return so far in 2025, though prices slipped Monday after posting their largest one-day dollar gain on record last Friday. Back in February, Campbell warned that booming solar demand had already pushed the market into a structural supply deficit.
Still, the near-term challenges are real, he concedes in a recent Substack post. Chief among them is the potential for tax-motivated selling once markets reopen in the new year, particularly on positions held for more than 12 months. Capital gains taxes drop at that threshold, especially for deep-in-the-money options expiring Dec. 31, giving traders an incentive to wait out the final three trading sessions of 2025 before taking profits.
Another concern is the U.S. dollar, which Campbell believes could firm in the short term following a strong third-quarter GDP report. A stronger dollar typically pressures commodities priced in the currency. He also points to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s decision to raise margin requirements for silver trades effective Dec. 29, a move that curbs leverage and speculative demand.
Campbell acknowledges that many observers are flagging silver’s “overbought” technical profile and warning that its meteoric rise could accelerate substitution with copper in industrial applications.
Even so, his bullish conviction remains intact. Addressing substitution risk directly, Campbell argues that while copper replacement makes sense over the long term, the roughly 18-month payback period required to retool facilities is too long for solar manufacturers to justify today.
He adds that the solar sector — one of silver’s largest demand drivers — remains profitable with silver prices as high as $134 per ounce, roughly 70% above current spot levels.
Perhaps the most consequential development on the near-term horizon is China’s new export-licensing regime, set to take effect Jan. 1. As a major net exporter, China’s annual production of about 121 million ounces of silver will now require government approval.
Campbell sees the current premium in physical silver as a powerful signal. Physical prices are hovering around $91 an ounce in Dubai and $85 in Shanghai, compared with roughly $75 for COMEX futures. “When the physical diverges so sharply from the paper like this,” he says, “one of them is wrong — and historically, it’s not physical.”
He also notes that backwardation in London’s over-the-counter silver market — where spot prices exceed forward prices — is at its highest level in decades. At the same time, options markets are pricing significant upside tail risk.
Technical indicators further reinforce the bullish case. Positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show no extreme speculative exposure, suggesting “there’s fuel left,” while silver-backed ETFs such as the iShares Silver Trust are still playing catch-up with physical demand.
Ultimately, Campbell says silver’s core drivers are structural. He points to “inelastic” demand from solar — estimated at 290 million ounces in 2025 and rising to 450 million ounces by 2030 — along with growing data-center demand. “Every AI query needs electrons,” he says. “The marginal electron is silver. Solar needs silver.”
About DayTradeToWin
DayTradeToWin® is a professional trading education company with over a decade of experience developing rule-based, non-predictive trading software for the futures markets.
Our methodology is built around structure — not opinions, news, or guesswork. Every strategy is designed to focus on:
- ✔ Market confirmation
- ✔ Risk management
- ✔ Trade timing precision
- ✔ Trader discipline
- ✔ Structured decision-making
We specialize in providing traders with objective tools that remove emotional bias and emphasize consistency over prediction.
DayTradeToWin’s software and educational programs are used by independent traders worldwide seeking a rules-driven approach to futures trading.
Educational Disclaimer
All content, software, training materials, and examples provided by DayTradeToWin are for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Trading futures involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always trade with risk capital and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
