Since 2008, the S&P 500 has consistently fallen during the two-month lead-up to the U.S. presidential election, averaging a 5.8% decline, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Historically, dating back to 1952, the S&P 500 has shown a slight average drop of 0.2% in this pre-election period, though the median gain is 0.1%, with an even split between gains and losses.
Despite these patterns, investment experts caution that past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have also tended to dip during the same period, with the Dow rising only a third of the time, and the Nasdaq 38.5% of the time since 1972.
September is traditionally a weak month, with an average drop of 0.78% since 1944, and election years bring added pressure, often extending declines into October.
During presidential election years, September has seen an average fall of 0.51%, while October, which typically gains 1.04%, has turned into a down month with an average decline of 0.45%.
John Paul is the founder of DayTradeToWin, a trading education and software platform established in 2008 with thousands of members worldwide. He specializes in price action-based futures trading strategies and structured market analysis.
DayTradeToWin provides trading education, indicators, and software tools designed to help traders apply disciplined, rule-based price action decision-making across global futures markets.
John Paul is the creator of several trading methodologies, including the Sonic System, Atlas Line, and Trade Scalper, used by traders to identify structured opportunities in markets such as the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), Nasdaq (NQ), crude oil (CL), and gold (GC).
Official website: https://daytradetowin.com
