Markets Eye Two Key Data Points Could Set the Stage for October
Investors appear eager to buy into Wednesday’s modest pullback in the S&P 500 (-0.10%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.33%), despite what some viewed as a less dovish Fed decision.
Part of the rebound comes from a closer look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “risk management” comment tied to the 25 bps rate cut. While some interpreted that as a sign of fewer cuts ahead, Goldman Sachs countered, noting Powell essentially paved the way for another cut in October.
Our call of the day comes from JPMorgan’s trading desk. Led by Andrew Tyler, the team says investors should be ready to buy dips, with the potential for an “explosive” rally if upcoming data delivers.
The two reports they’re watching:
- September nonfarm payrolls (Oct. 3)
- Consumer price inflation (Oct. 15)
If jobs rebound after two weak months and inflation stays contained, JPMorgan expects equities to surge higher, especially after a strong Q3 earnings season. For those eyeing the S&P 500 at 7,000 by year-end, they say this is “the first part of the formula.”
With the index only 4% away from that milestone, JPMorgan predicts the rally could broaden across U.S. stocks and even lift international equities, particularly emerging markets.
While Powell’s press conference leaned slightly hawkish, Tyler and his team maintain that “any and all dips should be bought,” even if there’s mild weakness into quarter-end.
Despite warnings about September’s historically rough track record, the S&P 500 is up 2.17% so far this month — on pace for its best September since 2025. Retail investors proved savvy earlier this year by buying April’s dip, and Wall Street may still be playing catch-up.
For now, the question is less about September seasonality and more about whether upcoming data sparks the breakout JPMorgan sees ahead.
