Evercore’s Emanuel: The Tech-Fueled Bull Market Still Has Legs
When investors compare today’s market rally to the late 1990s, it’s often a warning of bubbles and cautionary tales. But Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI, sees it differently.
In a Sunday note, Emanuel described a “technological revolution lifting stocks, multiples, and society to new highs.” He argues that today’s market is a structural, tech-driven bull run—this time powered by artificial intelligence—similar to the internet-fueled boom that carried stocks into the millennium.
The difference? Emanuel believes this AI wave is even bigger than the internet, already impacting every corner of industry and society, despite being in the early stages of adoption. Unlike the dot-com bubble, today’s rally has seen broad market participation across tech, industrials, and utilities supporting AI infrastructure.
Evercore’s forecast:
- S&P 500 at 6,250 by end-2025 (up from a previous 5,600 target).
- S&P 500 at 7,750 by end-2026, based on 27x EPS of $287.
- In a more exuberant scenario, if a bubble forms, the index could surge to 9,000 by 2026.
Why so bullish? Emanuel points to a supportive Federal Reserve, unlikely to hike rates ahead of the 2026 midterms, alongside the once-in-a-generation nature of AI’s impact.
Still, he warns of short-term pullbacks: “Scares are a part of innovation-driven bull markets.” With volatility low, he suggests investors use options as cheap downside protection—and be ready to buy the dips.
His conclusion: we haven’t yet reached the euphoric stage. The period of “rational exuberance” still lies ahead, echoing past late-stage structural bull markets like 2000, 2007, and 2021.
