Samantha LaDuc warns rising Treasury yields could signal trouble for stocks in 2026
One of the market strategists who accurately called this year’s S&P 500 path — a sharp selloff followed by a strong rebound — was Samantha LaDuc, founder of LaDucTrading.
A veteran trader active since 2008, LaDuc cautioned clients in early December 2024 that equities were headed for a “bloodbath,” forecasting a roughly 20% decline in the first half of 2025. Her thesis centered on tariffs not being priced in and a weakening U.S. dollar. The equity pullback arrived on Liberation Day, while the dollar has yet to recover from its early-year slide.
In a recent interview with MarketWatch, LaDuc said she flipped bullish around April 9, outlining an aggressive upside target of “hellbent on 6,666” for the S&P 500. By June, she mapped out two scenarios: if the index could reach and hold above 6,100, then 7,000 would be next. Sustained strength above 7,000, she said, could ultimately open the door to 8,200.
The S&P 500 is already within striking distance of that level, having peaked at 6,945.77.
LaDuc has built a reputation for bold — and often timely — calls. In 2022, she warned of a looming “tech wreck,” a year that proved painful for the Nasdaq. In early 2024, she urged investors to stay invested in equities, a move that paid off as the S&P 500 went on to post a record-setting year.
Looking ahead to 2026, LaDuc expects a challenging but upward-biased market. “This year will play into my main theme — a recession into all-time highs,” she said. “The stock market can go higher and so can unemployment.” She added that even the Federal Open Market Committee is increasingly concerned about stagflation risks heading into 2026.
For the S&P 500 to reach 8,200, LaDuc says two forces must align. First is sustained enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. With several major IPOs potentially hitting the market in 2026 — including OpenAI, SpaceX and Anthropic — she believes it’s difficult to envision equities unraveling in the near term.
Second is a weaker U.S. dollar. “A falling dollar is extremely positive for inflationary assets and equities,” she said. Combined with AI-driven IPO excitement, she argues, it could fuel a melt-up toward the 8,200 level.
LaDuc estimates current AI revenues at roughly $60 billion and says that if companies begin delivering real productivity gains and margin expansion — even via layoffs — the S&P 500 could justify those higher levels. That upside, however, would likely come alongside a weakening labor market and stubborn inflation.
With Wall Street consensus projecting a 16% gain for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026, LaDuc warns stocks are “priced for perfection.” In her view, current valuations leave little room for error. “U.S. equities cannot afford a sustained macro shock,” she said, describing the market as increasingly fault-intolerant.
Her biggest red flag for stocks? Rising Treasury yields. LaDuc sees the 10-year yield as a critical risk factor, arguing that higher unemployment and inflation would push yields higher as bond investors demand greater term premiums. “Rising yields always pull money away from growth and into safety,” she said.
The key level she’s watching is 4.6%. “If we get there and stay above it, yields are likely moving higher,” she warned.
Overall, LaDuc expects 2026 to be a “hold-your-nose” market — one where stocks grind higher, but perfection-priced earnings lead to periodic pullbacks before the next leg up. She also notes that 2026 is a U.S. midterm election year, historically supportive for equities, as administrations tend to favor stronger markets ahead of elections.
Beyond equities, LaDuc has remained bullish on commodities since the spring of 2024, calling it a “phenomenal major trend,” though she excludes oil. She correctly made the unpopular call in April 2024 that crude prices would fall from around $80 a barrel into the $60–$40 range, a move that has benefited miners through lower energy costs.
Her long-term optimism on precious metals is driven by two key factors: declining energy costs for gold and silver miners and a weakening U.S. dollar.
“Big picture, the precious metals trend isn’t going away,” LaDuc said. “The only thing that would stop it is the U.S. government balancing its budget — and what are the Vegas odds of that?”
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