UBS Wealth Sees Global Gold Demand Surging to Highest Since 2011
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, and gold investors are watching closely for any hint of rate cuts.
Lower borrowing costs typically benefit gold, as they reduce the appeal of yield-bearing assets like bonds. Recent signs of cooling inflation and weaker labor data have fueled hopes for a September rate cut, though Powell may push back on those expectations.
Against that backdrop, UBS Global Wealth Management strategists are turning even more bullish on the metal. Led by Wayne Gordon, the team now sees gold climbing to $3,600 an ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 by June 2026, up from earlier forecasts of $3,500. They continue to target $3,500 for the end of this year.
Gold has already surged 28% in 2025, outperforming stocks, bonds, G-10 currencies, and even bitcoin. UBS cites a combination of sticky U.S. inflation, soft growth, concerns over Fed independence, fiscal sustainability worries, and ongoing de-dollarization as key drivers of continued demand.
Crucially, UBS forecasts global gold demand rising 3% to 4,760 metric tons in 2025—the strongest since 2011. The team also raised its ETF demand outlook to nearly 600 metric tons, while expecting central bank purchases to remain strong, albeit slightly below last year’s near-record pace.
Still, the strategists warn the biggest risk for gold remains if the Fed is forced to raise rates again.
After rallying to a record $3,439.20 on July 22, gold has cooled over the summer. But enthusiasm is growing: DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach recently praised the metal as a mainstream asset class, while other strategists see rotation into industrial metals as the next big theme.
