Energy stocks surged across the board on Monday, from producers to service providers, as investors rushed to digest the potential fallout from dramatic developments in Venezuela over the weekend.
Oil-sector shares jumped despite a modest dip in crude prices and little movement in U.S. stock futures, suggesting investors were firmly in a buy-first, analyze-later mindset. Chevron and ConocoPhillips led the charge, soaring 8% and 7% respectively, while Exxon Mobil advanced 4%.
Oilfield services names also rallied sharply. SLB climbed 8% and Halliburton gained 7%, while refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy moved higher as well.
The catalyst was the reported capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. military, an event that raised expectations of a major reset for the country’s long-dormant oil industry. Service companies, in particular, could benefit if U.S. producers move in to revive Venezuela’s severely degraded production infrastructure.
Refiners, meanwhile, stand to gain from processing increased volumes of Venezuelan heavy crude should exports resume.
“Even an attempt to restart Venezuela would be extremely service-intensive,” said Matthew Tuttle, chief executive of Tuttle Capital Management. “Broken fields, broken pipelines, broken facilities — that’s why the first trade can be bullish for oil services and infrastructure companies, even if you’re bearish on long-term oil prices.”
Analysts at TD Cowen said Chevron appears best positioned among major oil companies, given its continued presence in the country. The firm has maintained a U.S. Treasury license since late 2022 that allows it to produce and export crude from existing Venezuelan assets.
“Chevron’s established footprint could give it a significant advantage if new opportunities emerge,” TD Cowen analysts, including Menno Hulshof and Marc Bianchi, wrote in a note to clients. The firm estimates Chevron currently produces about 200,000 barrels per day through its joint ventures in Venezuela.
ConocoPhillips also drew attention from analysts at Citi, who see roughly 8% upside for the stock if Venezuela begins settling long-standing debts. The company was awarded $10.5 billion plus interest by an international court following the 2007 nationalization of Venezuela’s oil industry.
To date, ConocoPhillips has recovered about $800 million, with legal actions in 2025 potentially adding another $1 billion. The remaining balance has effectively been valued at zero due to uncertainty around repayment.
Still, Citi analysts urged restraint, noting the oil industry’s fraught history in Venezuela. “A meaningful re-engagement would require a substantial shift in political and fiscal conditions,” they said.
President Donald Trump fueled speculation over the weekend, saying U.S. oil companies would enter Venezuela, invest billions to repair the country’s “badly broken” oil infrastructure, and ultimately generate revenue for the nation. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said oil companies had been contacted both before and after the operation.
Despite Monday’s rally, energy stocks have lagged in recent years as oil prices have struggled since mid-2022. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF gained just over 7% in 2025, a stark contrast to the explosive performance of precious metals, with the iShares MSCI Global Silver and Metals Miner ETF surging more than 200% during the same period.
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