Rob Citrone Sees U.S. Economic Trade Boom in 2026, Bets Big on Latin America
Investors rattled by recent market volatility may find comfort in the insights of veteran hedge fund manager Rob Citrone, who believes markets have become more unpredictable — but also more opportunistic.
“Markets have become less efficient over the past 5 to 10 years,” said Citrone, founder of Discovery Capital Management, in a recent appearance on Goldman Sachs’ Exchanges podcast. “They don’t price in future events the way they used to.” He attributes this shift to a growing influence of retail investors and algorithmic trading, which react to headlines rather than anticipate trends.
With a career that includes stints under George Soros and Julian Robertson, Citrone has long favored a hybrid approach — combining top-down macroeconomic analysis with bottom-up asset selection. It’s a strategy that has paid off: Discovery Capital has returned roughly 50% annually since 2023 and now manages about $3 billion.
A big part of that performance came from shorting two of the three regional banks that collapsed in 2023. Citrone concedes that short selling is now a “lost art” in an era scarred by the meme-stock craze, but he still sees value in contrarian positions.
Despite current high valuations, Citrone remains bullish on the United States. He continues to believe in “American exceptionalism,” thanks to the country’s dominant private sector and technological edge. He expects the U.S. economy to surge in 2026, driven by anticipated tax cuts and modest tariffs (likely no more than 10% outside of China). As a result, he sees the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5% later this year and doubts the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term.
Beyond the U.S., Citrone is especially optimistic about Latin America. While many investors focus on Asia for emerging markets, he believes Latin America is underappreciated and undervalued. “You have very cheap assets there and can make significant returns — not just in equities but also in fixed income, credit, and currencies,” he said.
He views the region as a “safe haven” from U.S. trade policy volatility, noting that no Latin American country faces tariffs above 10%. Recent political shifts toward market-friendly governments are adding to his bullishness.
His biggest current position? Argentina. Citrone is backing the country’s reform agenda under President Javier Milei, who has slashed capital controls and committed to cutting government spending. Local peso-denominated credit, Citrone says, is a “home run trade.” He compares it to his billion-dollar gain in 2013 when he went long the dollar versus the yen.
For retail investors interested in following his Latin America thesis, Citrone points to ETFs like the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) and the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) as potential entry points.
In a world of shifting fundamentals and sharper market swings, Citrone sees opportunity — and plenty of it.
