Jonathan Golub: Tech and a Healthy Economy Will Keep Markets Climbing
The S&P 500 notched its 25th record close of the year on Monday, brushing off pre-Fed jitters and setting the stage for more gains. Some investors fear the rally has run too far, but Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Seaport Research Partners, argues that fundamentals—not hype—are driving this market.
Golub, alongside portfolio strategist Patrick Palfrey, sees double-digit returns ahead. Their forecast calls for the S&P 500 to hit 6,700 by year-end and 7,300 by the end of 2026—one of the most bullish outlooks on Wall Street. The drivers: earnings growth and continued tech leadership.
“We’re not in a 1990s bubble,” Golub told MarketWatch. “As long as tech momentum holds and the economy stays reasonably strong, valuations can keep drifting higher.”
He points to improving economic conditions: recession odds have fallen from 40% to 30%, bond yields are lower, credit spreads are tight, and volatility has eased. “This isn’t about sentiment or hunches. It’s fundamentals—real companies with real earnings.”
For investors, the key question is whether pullbacks signal deeper trouble or just temporary disruptions. “Outside of recessions, dip buying is a brilliant strategy,” Golub said. But in a downturn, it quickly turns dangerous.
Still, risks remain. A slowdown in AI spending or tech earnings could drag on the entire S&P 500. Labor market weakness or policy missteps could also weigh on growth. “The economy doesn’t need to run hot,” he added. “It just can’t go into reverse—and right now, there’s little sign of that happening.”
