Spitznagel Says the Real Crash Is Still Coming: Recent Market Dip Is Just a ‘Trap’
Mark Spitznagel, one of Wall Street’s most famously bearish — and remarkably successful — investors, isn’t convinced the recent market turmoil is the long-anticipated crash he’s been warning about. In his view, this is just a prelude — a trap.
“This isn’t it. I expect an 80% crash when it’s all said and done,” Spitznagel wrote in a note to MarketWatch. “But this? This is just the shakeout before the real event.”
Spitznagel is the founder and CIO of Universa Investments, a hedge fund designed to profit from rare and extreme market events — the so-called “Black Swans.” The firm’s strategy, influenced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (of The Black Swan fame), focuses on preparing for the unthinkable — and profiting when it hits.
Universa turned heads in early 2020 when it posted a staggering 4,144% return during the pandemic-driven market crash. And while Spitznagel says his firm is still trading like a crash is coming, he doesn’t believe we’ve seen the true market collapse yet.
“This is just another selloff meant to shake out investors,” he said. “It’s not the apocalypse — not yet. But that time will come when the bubble finally bursts. Right now, this is one of the most contrarian positions you could take. Promise.”
On Monday, stocks saw a rollercoaster session. While the Dow ended down over 200 points (about 0.57%), the S&P 500 clawed back 0.35%, and the Nasdaq slipped 0.84%. Last week’s selloff — triggered by new tariffs announced by President Trump — saw the S&P 500 fall 10.5% over just two days, marking its worst back-to-back decline since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020.
Spitznagel has long sounded the alarm on what he views as an inevitable and historic market crash — potentially rivaling 1929. Though he’s not in the business of timing the markets, he’s repeatedly warned about systemic risks, especially the ballooning U.S. debt.
Earlier this year, he cautioned investors not to be caught off guard when the market truly turns. “You don’t want to be the sucker who sells low and buys high,” he said, emphasizing the importance of having a strategy that can weather turmoil.
“Our clients have ridden this bull for years,” he added. “A lot of people think it’s over and they’ve got it all figured out. Take it from a professional doomer — they don’t. And they’re definitely not in the right position for what’s coming.”
Even so, Spitznagel has offered guidance for everyday investors. In a 2023 Fortune interview, he advised retail investors to keep it simple: buy low-cost index funds, don’t over-leverage, and keep investing even during downturns. The key, he stressed, is staying in the game — not panicking when things get rough.
