Golden Cross Signals Bullish Momentum for Stocks as S&P 500 Enters Second Half Strong
The S&P 500 is starting the second half of 2025 with a bullish bang.
On Tuesday, the benchmark index confirmed its first golden cross in over two years—a key technical indicator that suggests growing market momentum. This occurs when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average, a classic signal that bulls are gaining ground.
The last time this happened was on Feb. 2, 2023, during the early days of the current bull market. Since then, the S&P 500 has surged more than 48%, according to FactSet data.
This golden cross follows other strong technical signals, including the rare Zweig Breadth Thrust that emerged in April—an indicator with a perfect historical track record of predicting further market gains going back to 1982. Just last Friday, the S&P 500 notched its first record close since February, marking the fastest rebound from a 15%+ drawdown in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“This is a healthy sign for the market,” said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler. “With improving breadth and broader participation, we’re set up for a strong second half of the year.”
Historically, golden crosses have delivered solid returns. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has been higher a year after a golden cross 71% of the time, averaging over a 10% gain. More recently, the last 20 golden crosses produced a one-year average return of 13%, with an 85% success rate.
What’s different this time? The current golden cross arrives with the S&P 500 hovering just under a fresh record high—adding further weight to the bullish case.
“This has consistently been one of the best signals to go long,” said Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, who also noted that golden crosses have a stronger track record than their bearish counterpart, the death cross, where the 50-day average dips below the 200-day. The last death cross came in April, after much of the market damage had already occurred.
Momentum is building across the board. The Nasdaq Composite registered its own golden cross on Monday, while Nvidia (NVDA), one of the year’s top-performing tech stocks, saw the same signal last Friday.
Small- and mid-cap stocks are also beginning to show strength, another bullish sign according to Piper Sandler’s Johnson, who expects the S&P 500 to reach 6,600 by year-end.
Still, not everyone is fully convinced. Some cautionary indicators are flashing—like the gold-to-platinum price ratio, a lesser-known but historically reliable short-term market timer, which recently turned bearish.
On Tuesday, U.S. stocks were mixed. The S&P 500 closed slightly lower following back-to-back record highs, while the Nasdaq also slipped. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 1%, and the Russell 2000 advanced over 1%, hinting at broader strength beneath the surface.
