Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: All Eyes on Apple as Tech Rally Broadens
After two straight record-setting sessions for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the new quarter is off to a softer start, with markets eyeing potential losses. A holiday-shortened week and ongoing political developments — including Trump’s tax and spending bill in the Senate — may be fueling some investor fatigue.
Still, July could benefit from a historically bullish seasonal trend typical of post-election years, according to Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat. In a new note to clients, he says the rally may continue through July before stalling into a period of sideways action in August.
Newton points to signs of broadening market strength, including technical breakouts by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF. But his main focus? Apple.
Despite a rocky start to the year — Apple shares are still down 18%, trailing most tech peers except Tesla — the stock surged over 2% Monday. Newton highlights this move as potentially significant. Apple broke out of a month-long consolidation and closed at its highest level since mid-May, fueled by reports it may turn to third-party AI technology for a new version of Siri — a notable shift from its in-house strategy.
That single session might mark a turning point for both Apple and the broader tech sector. Newton argues that a move above $214 would confirm a larger rally for Apple, which has been mostly absent from the S&P 500’s 27% surge since April.
Newton also notes improving technical strength in tech stocks more broadly, using the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF (RSPT) as a barometer. He sees a likely test of all-time highs, though resistance could surface before another leg higher into year-end.
His outlook: Tech could outperform into August, then pause or pull back in September, before resuming gains in the fourth quarter.
“Any upward momentum from Apple into July could help sustain tech’s recent outperformance,” Newton says. Despite trading sideways for much of May and June, Apple remains a stock to watch.
