Consumer Confidence Plummets in Trump’s First Months Amid Tariff Fears and Economic Uncertainty
In his first 100 days back in the White House, President Donald Trump has overseen the sharpest drop in consumer expectations since the 1990 recession, signaling growing public unease with the direction of the economy.
Daniella Knight, a mother of three from Annapolis, Maryland, embodies that anxiety. “I’m terrified, to be honest,” she said, citing concerns over rising prices driven by tariffs. “Politicians won’t feel the impact if milk or rice or electronics become more expensive—but families like mine will.”
Trump returned to office with promises to rebuild the economy and reverse the financial strain many Americans experienced under President Biden. But recent data and polling show that for many, economic optimism has eroded quickly.
Surveys reveal a growing number of Americans feel worse off financially, are less confident about their job prospects, and are scaling back on major purchases like cars, homes, and travel. Businesses are taking notice, too.
“Consumer sentiment, business sentiment, and investor sentiment are all falling,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “That decline has real economic consequences. We’re likely headed for a slowdown.”
Much of the pessimism stems from Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which rattled financial markets and introduced new economic uncertainty. While the administration argues tariffs will eventually strengthen domestic industries and improve trade, many economists and consumers remain skeptical. A recent forecast from RSM US puts the odds of a recession within the next year at 55%.
Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, says their index has recorded a roughly 30-point decline in consumer expectations since January—a dramatic drop not seen since the early 1990s. “It’s not just a wiggle in the data,” she said. “It’s a plunge.”
Tariffs are not directly addressed in the surveys, but respondents frequently mention them when asked about their economic concerns. Even with a partial tariff pause in April, sentiment remains at its weakest level in nearly three years.
According to Gallup, 53% of Americans say their financial situation is worsening—a record high that surpasses even the early pandemic lows of 2020. Similarly, the New York Federal Reserve found that fewer people expect their finances to improve, while more anticipate they’ll get worse.
The mood is deeply partisan. Republicans are far more optimistic about the economy under Trump, reversing their gloom during the Biden era. Only 28% of Republicans say their finances are deteriorating, compared to 75% of Democrats—a dramatic swing from the previous year. Independents are also feeling the pinch, with over half reporting financial decline.
Still, cracks are emerging in Trump’s base. While support for tariffs among Republicans remains high, opposition has grown—from 13% in December to 20% now. “They may still believe in the policy,” Hsu noted, “but more of them are bracing for economic pain.”
White House spokesperson Kush Desai defended the administration’s approach, citing job growth and rising wages under Trump’s leadership, while emphasizing goals like border security and deregulation.
Despite solid headline economic figures—such as a strong labor market and low unemployment—many Americans are uneasy. Consumer confidence surveys, job security polls, and reports from companies like Redfin, Chipotle, and Domino’s all point to a growing caution.
Roughly one in four Americans are canceling or delaying big purchases due to tariff worries, according to a Redfin survey. Middle-income households, in particular, say they’re cutting back on discretionary spending.
Companies are adjusting accordingly. Airlines like American and Southwest have withdrawn their financial guidance, citing uncertainty. Retailers and consumer brands are also reporting slower sales, with Procter & Gamble and Chipotle attributing the slowdown to economic anxiety.
Behind the statistics are real people like Knight, who’s searching for ways to trim costs amid rising household expenses. “I’m racking my brain for how to spend less,” she said. “But it’s nearly impossible when you’re raising kids.”
As Hsu puts it: “If consumers don’t feel confident, they’ll pull back—and that has real consequences for the entire economy.”
