Part 2 Swing Trading Forecast Entry Method Using Price Action

Welcome back, traders! In today’s blog post, we’re diving into part two of our series on predicting market trends and capitalizing on them. If you haven’t caught the first part yet, make sure to check out this link for a comprehensive understanding of forecasting in the financial markets.

As we reflect on the year that was, let’s take a closer look at the NASDAQ’s journey throughout 2023. From the highs of January to the closing days of December, we’ll explore key strategies to decipher market movements and, more importantly, how to leverage them to your advantage.

The first crucial step in our strategy is recognizing when a new high is established. For instance, a higher close than open in January 2023 signals a potential upward trend for the year.

However, we don’t jump into the market right away. Patience is key. We patiently await a retracement, typically four or five days of pullback, after the initial surge. Whether you use indicators or prefer focusing on price action, this method emphasizes a disciplined approach to entering the market.

To refine our entries, we introduce the 50% retracement tool. As the market retraces, we wait until it surpasses the 50% mark and closes above it before considering a long position. This method minimizes false starts and ensures a more robust confirmation of the upward trend.

The strategy also involves keeping an eye out for double tops, where a clear retracement occurs. By using this approach, we aim to capitalize on the market’s tendency to test previous highs, providing an excellent opportunity for profitable trades.

Understanding market psychology is paramount. The “Stochastic Pop” or the acceleration in the opposite direction once highs are broken is a phenomenon we leverage. It often signifies the triggering of stop-loss orders, leading to a swift market movement in our favor.

This isn’t exclusive to the NASDAQ; it’s a versatile strategy applicable to various markets. We briefly explore the E-mini S&P as an example, illustrating how these principles can be replicated across different financial instruments.

Exiting a trade is as crucial as entering. If the market doesn’t follow the anticipated trajectory within a few days, it’s time to reconsider. Closes below the midpoint or extended periods trading below it signal a potential shift, prompting a strategic exit.

As we bid farewell to 2023, the lessons learned from this market analysis will serve as valuable tools in navigating the upcoming year. Stay tuned for future updates and analysis as we embark on the exciting journey of 2024.


Trading is an ever-evolving art, and mastering market trends requires a blend of technical analysis, strategic patience, and a keen understanding of market psychology. May your trades be prosperous, and here’s to a successful 2024! Happy trading, everyone!

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