Market Reactions Post-Debate
Following Thursday’s debate, markets began pricing in a higher likelihood of former President Donald Trump defeating President Joe Biden. Stock-index futures and the U.S. dollar rose, as even Vice President Kamala Harris admitted Biden had a “slow start.”
Scaramucci’s Shift
Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge and former Trump spokesperson, stated it would take something “seismic” for Trump not to win after the debate. He previously believed Biden would secure re-election.
Alternative Candidates
New York Times columnist Ezra Klein suggested Democrats consider a different nominee at the August convention, referencing historical precedents like Abraham Lincoln and Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Betting Markets
On PredictIt, Trump’s contract surged from 53 to 61 cents, while Biden’s fell from 48 to 31 cents, with other Democrats like California Gov. Gavin Newsom rising. Newsom, however, expressed continued support for Biden.
Potential Democratic Candidates
Names trending on social media included Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, former First Lady Michelle Obama, Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Vice President Harris.
Nate Silver’s Perspective
Polling expert Nate Silver indicated a preference for Harris or Newsom over Biden, despite them not being his preferred options.
Intra-Party Dynamics
Grace Fan from TS Lombard noted the challenge of nominating Biden before Ohio’s Aug. 7 certification deadline. Biden’s debate performance has heightened these intra-party discussions.
Goldman Sachs’ Market Predictions
Goldman Sachs outlined scenarios: a Republican sweep could lead to modest equity rallies, higher yields, and dollar strength, while a Democratic sweep could result in modest equity declines, higher yields, and dollar weakness.
These dynamics could influence market movements, depending on whether there’s a shift in the odds of a Democratic or Republican win and potential policy changes.
