The upcoming week holds significant events that are poised to influence stock-market dynamics. Investors are eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy meeting, a pivotal December employment report, and a wave of earnings reports from major technology players.
These events collectively offer crucial insights into the economic landscape and the potential trajectory of interest rates.
Encouraging data from the past week, indicating a moderation in inflationary pressures in December, fueled a surge in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 closed at a record high for five consecutive days, marking its longest such streak since November 2021.
While the index dipped slightly on Friday, it still secured a weekly gain of 1.1%, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also posting positive gains.
Market participants seem to be catching up with the trends of 2023, deploying funds into the market to capitalize on short-term opportunities. Robert Schein, Chief Investment Officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management, notes the market’s focus on quick gains until major events unfold.
One such event could be a Federal Reserve speech that might deviate from expectations, potentially causing a shift in market sentiment.
Expectations for the Fed to initiate rate cuts as early as March, following a rapid tightening cycle, have driven a rally in U.S. stock and bond markets. Investors currently anticipate several quarter-point rate cuts by December, aiming to bring the fed-funds rate down to 4-4.25%. However, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the upcoming news conference could challenge these expectations and resist forecasts of a March cut.
Thierry Wizman, a strategist at Macquarie, suggests that a too-dovish stance from the Fed, a robust stock-market rally, a resilient labor market, and geopolitical tensions could prompt Powell to maintain a monetary tightening bias. The fear of renewed inflation due to conflicts in the Middle East may further deter the Fed from immediate rate cuts.
Labor-market data, particularly the January employment report, is identified as a significant factor influencing U.S. financial markets. Investors are keenly awaiting signs of a slowing labor market that might prompt rate cuts. Economists estimate a gain of 180,000 jobs in January, with slight upticks in the unemployment rate and a cooling of wage gains.
The week also brings earnings reports from major technology companies, the so-called “Magnificent 7,” including Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms. These reports are expected to influence the S&P 500’s value, as these companies have played a crucial role in the recent stock-market rally.
In aggregate, these tech giants are projected to drive a substantial year-over-year earnings growth for the fourth quarter of 2023, offsetting declines in other S&P 500 companies. Overall, the blended earnings decline for the entire S&P 500 for Q4 2023 is estimated at 1.4%.
