This is the third of three videos from the recent live price action webinar. In this video, John Paul discusses the following:
Using the ATR in live conditions
How to minimize risk
Catastrophic stops – knowing when you’re out of the trade
Avoiding areas of market manipulation
How to handle retracements with the Trade Scalper
Interpreting multiple Trade Scalper signals
The importance of our live training and practice
Renko bars and a review of recent trading days
Identifying overbought conditions
The next Group Mentorship class starts July 26, 2016.Reserve your seat by clicking here. With your deposit, you’ll receive the first week’s materials ahead of time (ATO course and software). During the eight weeks, you will be provided with all of our courses and software.
Here’s an update to last week’s video where John Paul said to watch out for a potential E-mini breakout. There’s been a lot of talk about a forthcoming reversal in the market. Load up a 1-week chart in your platform of choice and look for the large red candle for the first week of August. Based on this weekly movement, many institutional traders, trading advisers and individual traders likely went short. The following week, the market went down a bit more, came back up and closed as a doji candle. There was no confirmation whether the market wants to go higher or lower. We’ve started a new week here on August 15, so the currently plotting bullish candle may be a sign that the market will go up and test the most recent “high area” of 1978. The market may turn around on a dime and drop later today, next week, etc., but watch what happens if price hits the 1978 level.
1. Coach needs to be a good teacher – Having someone who is personable and can communicate ideas effectively is super important. John Paul has years of experience teaching traders using a live webinar format. His explanations are clear and concise. You are free to ask questions whenever you want and go over previously taught concepts that may still be challenging. Remember, what Mentorship offers is an educational experience – it’s not a trading room. We want you to become a professional trader who can engage with the markets successfully on your own.
2. Coach needs to be accessible – Individual Mentorship can be customized to your availability and time zone. John Paul answers emails from students directly, before, during, and after the eight week coaching program. We occasionally have students from Australia or other countries where the 3:00 p.m. US/Eastern Group Mentorship time is inconvenient. They love being able to access the video recordings on demand and following up with email questions. As a Mentorship student, you can email John Paul your trading questions at any time.
3. Proof of success – What are people saying about the Program? How are the reviews? Does the website offer any testimonials from real traders who partook in the education? We have a full testimonial page with over 16 video testimonials from traders who have taken our courses. And below the videos, you’ll see many written testimonials. We’ve had hundreds of students who have taken our courses. We know they’re still trading our methods because they email us to update their software licenses years after their original date of purchase. In addition, we have over three years of Atlas Line trades posted on our recent trades page.
4. Training materials need to be easy to understand – Does the website provide any indication of what the courses will be like? Are they designed for beginners or more advanced students? Day Trade to Win’s courses are full of easy-to-understand explanations and charts. We know day trading education can be intimidating, so we try our best to lower the learning curve. With the Mentorship Program, you receive courses for the ATO, Price Action Scalping, and Trade Scalper. These strategies are also taught in the live training in addition to other strategies that are live-training only. Being able to ask questions and see why a trade setup occurs greatly improves understanding. Remember that all of the live training is conducted using the most recent data (current day and recent days). This way, you can get an idea of how the market is currently playing out.
5. Practice environment required – Does the coaching program offer any sort of practice environment? You’re going to need to test what you’ve learned on the markets. At Day Trade to Win, we provide access to the NinjaTrader platform, the same platform John Paul uses. We also provide live data feeds for free upon request, so you are able to trade just like you would with real money. Remember, the only time you have to pay for NinjaTrader is when you want to trade live with real money. At that point, you fund a brokerage account and pay for a live NinjaTrader license. Up until then, there’s no cost to hone your skills.
6. Affordability – Can you afford to take the Program? Education is an investment. If you jumped in to the markets without an idea of what you’re doing, the market will have its way with your finances. It’s better to be fully prepared and be armed with strategies that have been proven and tested for years. Losses from mistakes and guessing can easily surpass the costs of a proper education. With Mentorship, the cost is less than purchasing all of our courses separately. We also split the payment three ways. With the deposit, you are able to get the first week’s course right away.
7. Assistance getting setup with trading materials – Many of our students had never traded before finding us. In fact, a large portion of our students are not the best when it comes to computers. That’s why we provide remote assistance. Upon request, we can log in to your computer and help you get set up with NinjaTrader and our courses and software. You’ll be able to practice trading in no time without any frustration or obstacles. Support is also offered after the eight weeks of training are over.
8. Ability to track progress – We offer the ability to practice in a simulated (paper) trading environment until you’re ready to fund an account with a broker. Since you’re getting into trading to actually trade money, you obviously will need a way to track your results. You’ll need a positive indication before investing into trading further. For each simulated trade you place, the NinjaTrader platform logs everything about the trade. Using NinjaTrader’s Account Performance tab, you can get instant statistical feedback on consistency, profit, loss, and overall totals.
9. Video training – Does the program offer training videos? It’s important to be able to see visual explanations and examples. We record each Mentorship training session and upload it to your personal account. You can log in and play back Mentorship training sessions at your own leisure. If a concept is a bit difficult for you, play back that portion of the video over again. We have these videos up within a few hours of each class, in most cases.
10. Integration with the charting platform – Day trading is about looking at charts and applying learned strategies. For many of the methods taught in our Mentorship Program, we have indicators programmed for NinjaTrader. Unlike other trading educators, we do not give you a ton of confusing indicators and have you blindly trade them. In fact, you do not need to use these indicators to trade since you fully learn each method. However, these indicators are great in ensuring your understanding. For example, the Trade Scalper indicator provides entry signals. You can manually find the same entries and check if they are correct by comparing with the Trade Scalper’s automated signals.
The next Group Mentorship Program begins July 8, 2014. Classes will be Tuesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. EDT (UTC-4). Click here to enroll.
Individual Mentorship can begin at almost any time. Send us an email at [email protected] with your availability.
Today’s E-mini at 9:30 a.m. EST was priced at 1811.75. It ended the day at 1780.25. It was a big down day. This opportunity allows us to show you multiple Strength and Pullback Trades when price is severely trending. The Atlas Line was correct in deciding the market would be going short, as it advised sticking to the short side. You can see our recent trades on this page that show the Atlas Line strategy in action from 9:30 a.m. to noon, EST.
After purchase, we email you the Atlas Line software and instructions. We also provide you with a training video ahead of time to teach you how to use the Atlas Line. We also invite you to the next live training session, where John Paul shows you and a handful of other new Atlas Line users how to use the software. We also provide you with a recording of the live training session. Free support is provided for the duration of your license. Click here to go to the Atlas Line purchase page.
This is the first in an installment of ongoing trading videos where Day Trade to Win founder John Paul explains the basics of day trading. Since most traders come to us wanting to scrap their indicator setup and use only price action to trade, this Lesson 1 video focuses on the differences between indicators and price action trading.
Before we get too far ahead, indicators are little programs that run inside of a day trading platform. Indicators are meant to provide a trader with helpful advice in gauging market behavior, and in some cases, telling the trader exactly when and how to place a trade. Indicators are very appealing for these reasons. However, traders should be cautious because most indicators lag behind real-time price activity, meaning the advice they give can often be inaccurate.
At Day Trade to Win, we teach traders how to assess marking conditions using price as it plots in real-time. Using only price and its relation to time, we can estimate how good for trading the market is, where to enter the market, how much profit we should be taking, and where to put a stop loss in case the trade goes against us.
In the video, John Paul points out a common problem with the popular SMA (Simple Moving Average) indicator. Like most indicators, the SMA depends on a parameter (a configurable variable) to adjust its operation. If you do not know the correct value to use for real-time market conditions, the indicator becomes worthless. You end up looking at history to see what value worked best in the past and then adjusting the indicator for expectations of improved future results.
John Paul does not use the SMA, stochastics, bands, waves, or any other type of regular system. For a five-minute E-mini S&P chart, he typically uses a BarTimer and an Average True Range. You’ll have to watch the video to see why these tools are important and how to use them to your advantage. For TradeStation users, we offer a BarTimer for free as a download.
The first part of this live webinar recording explains how to use the Atlas Line to evaluate whether a trade is still viable after big market spikes. By checking if the current plotting Atlas Line position is more than double the ATR, a trader can determine if the market is “exhausted” and not worth trading. If the value is less, the trade is still viable. The Atlas Line’s entry, profit target and stop loss can then be placed according to the rules. At around 7:00 in, John Paul explains what the ATR is and how to configure it. At about 13:00 in, John Paul discusses trade management from the last few days. Again, the profit and stop loss values are taught to you in the live training. However, John Paul goes over them briefly in this video at the 15:00 mark. Fast forward to the 28:00 mark to see a review of this year’s January Effect trading opportunities. The January Effect is sort of a retracement breakout strategy, where there’s an expectation for the market to rise overall for 2013. Each time a previous high value is reached via retracement using a Daily chart, there seems to be consistency with price then rising. According to John Paul, this makes for many good Long (bullish) entries.
In this video, John Paul covers the E-mini market activity almost a month ago where a new high was reached. By examining the behavior of the market on September 18, 2013, we can take better advantage of similar market behavior in the future. The January Effect has shown that for nearly every major pullback and return, once the previous high is broken, trading conditions are optimal for a long trade. Almost always, price “blows” through the previous high, making new highs. By positioning ourselves to go long at the previous high, we can possibly position ourselves for profit.
An example of breaking a new high can be found at 2:50 in the video. An FOMC news event seemingly drives price up, past the previous high. Notice that John Paul points out the previous high occurred in April (he’s using a daily or monthly NinjaTrader chart for these long-range comparisons).
Why does price seem to pattern itself this way? John Paul claims the January Effect is responsible. The January Effect says that because January 2013 closed higher than it opened (on the E-mini S&P), we can also expect the E-mini S&P to close higher (for the year) than its opening price. In previous videos, he has explained that the January Effect is a consistent indicator of price behavior. For a review of the recent year and the previous year, fast forward to 5:05 in the video.
At 6:13 in the video, the bad news of the government shutdown as produced some unusual candles. If price breaks 1725 mark, it may be a good idea to go long. In the last few days, the closest we’ve been to this previous high is 1700.25, so we have quite a ways to go. Certainly, if there is news on the debt ceiling or resolve regarding the government shutdown, be ready as price may take off in a favorable direction.
John Paul shows how the short entry signal is displayed for the Atlas Line. In this case, we are waiting for two closing candles below the dashed pink line (Atlas Line). When the second candle closes, red text appears indicating to the trader that it’s time to sell the market (a short trade). You can see how we’re waiting for price to trigger our entry. This is essential what price action trading is all about. Using a price action strategy, you can determine when to enter, and what your profit target and stop loss should be. The entry, profit target, and stop loss are the three primary positions you have to consider for each trade. As with any trading method, price action does have losing trades. The long trade earlier on June 17, 2013 resulted in a small loss or break-even trade. It’s important to consider broker fees and periods of time greater than 30 days when gauging the success of a trading system.
The trade in this video occurred in the afternoon. Typically, John Paul only trades the US/Eastern morning period, from 9:30 a.m. to noon. The Atlas Line can provide evening trades as well for the Globex market. For trading futures currencies like the 6E (Euro FX), you can set the Atlas Line to work with the 3:00 a.m. US/eastern equivalent of the European market open.
After you enter a trade, you are waiting until your profit target or stop loss gets hit. If the profit target is not hit, you have to get out at either a smaller profit, break even, or loss. At 2:56 in the video, John Paul explains a few of the stop strategies. He advises taking whatever stop loss comes first. The profit targets are based on the Average True Range (ATR) with a value of four. By rounding the current ATR value down, you can determine what the profit target should be. This allows you to keep your profit expectations a reasonable distance from the entry.
In this video, John Paul takes a Blueprint Trade, the main strategy taught in the Power Price Action course. Since the strategy is based entirely on price action, only time and price movement are considered for recognizing the entries and calculating the profit target and stop loss. The Bar Timer tool is used to let us know the time remaining in the currently plotting candle. It’s a countdown indicating when the current candle closes. Once the candle closed, John Paul entered the trade long at 1618.75. With NinjaTrader’s Chart Trader enabled and an ATM strategy in place, you can see the profit target and stop loss lines on the chart. The profit target is easy to calculate for this trade. Based on the current ATR (Average True Range) value, it’s two points. The stop loss is at 1615, which is 3.75 points below the entry. John Paul did not expect the stop loss to get hit, but it’s always important to have one in place in case the market suddenly takes off. Sometimes, when stops are too tight, regular market fluctuations can take you out of a trade prematurely when your profit target may have otherwise been reached. There are a few other stop strategies taught in the course such as the prove-it and time-based stops. For this trade, it’s just a matter of waiting for price to move through the profit target. With Power Price Action, there are no Fibonaccis, MACDs, bands, channels, or Market Profile techniques. It’s all price action – the way candles plot on the chart.
Najam from New Jersey was a struggling trader who traded on and off for about a year. During his struggle, he was following moving averages, cycles, momentum, etc. He was not sure when to enter the trade and when to exit. He then found Day Trade to Win and signed up for the eight-week Mentorship Program. By learning the many price action methods John Paul teaches, Najam has all the answers he needs. Najam’s favorite trading methods he learned is the Roadmap, Atlas Line and X-5 trade.
“John Paul is an amazing teacher. You can ask him any question and he will explain it over and over until you get it. His method of trading is price action.”
He recommends this course to anyone who wants to improve their trading results. He commends John Paul and the Day Trade to Win staff for reliable help and service.
Included with the eight week Mentorship Program:
• Eight weeks in duration taught live by John Paul.
• Focuses on the E-mini and other popular futures and currencies
• Includes all software and courses (Atlas Line, ATO, Roadmap Trade, Blueprint Trade (Power Price Action method), X-5 Trade, Price Action Scalping, the Trade Scalper, Filtering Trades, Trading the News and much more).
• All classes are recorded and any class after the eight weeks is free. You can play back your videos at any time in the future and watch the lessons.
• Via email, John is also able to answer your trading questions about the Mentorship methods whenever you have them
• We also offer remote assistance to completely set you up with everything that you need.
• Our methods are based on experience and knowledge used by floor traders. Our focus is consistent profitability using only price action.
CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
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