If you’re using the Atlas Line on the E-mini S&P 500, you probably saw today’s Long signal at 2160.75. The signal was displayed at about 9:55 a.m. US/Eastern. John Paul’s risk management is related to real-time market conditions. That’s why he’s trading with nine contracts and setting his profit target and stop at those specific values. In the included live training, you’re taught these rules. When you have a specific guideline to follow, you can relax a bit more while trading. As he points out in the video, time is not your friend. The longer you stay in a trade, the more risk you’re subject to. Instead, it’s better to make profit quickly and get out. For the Atlas Line, the maximum time you would stay in the market is about 20 minutes (four candles on a 5-min. chart). When the ATR (Average True Range) is less than 4 ticks (1 point), it’s best to stay out because the market is too slow. Conversely, an ATR above 20 ticks (five points) indicates the market is too fast to trade. About 15 minutes later, John Paul’s trade approaches the profit target. When trading with any strategy, be mindful of upcoming news events. News events can cause havoc in the markets – it’s best to stay out until the volatility subsides. Also, before trading for the day, double-check your charts and data to make sure everything is working properly. Also, when you’re in a trade, you can sometimes move your stop loss closer to the profit target to lock in a trade.
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John Paul adds the Atlas Line to his July 31, 2015 E-mini S&P chart to show you the live trades the software produces. The signals that you see in the video are the same for all Atlas Line users. Typically, he uses between 8-12 contracts, depending how comfortable he is with the market conditions. In this trade, the ATR was around 3 points. We like to use pre-configured ATM strategies because they allow quick selection of a commonly used profit target and stop loss. It’s very important to always have a profit target and stop loss in mind, otherwise you open yourself up to emotional decisions instead of price objectivity. The Long signal was given for 2100.75. The profit target and stop loss John Paul uses is based on what current market conditions can provide (as indicated by the ATR). Many traders use a fixed profit and risk strategy, which can get them into trouble. We have plenty of videos that explain exactly why John Paul uses certain profit targets and stops. For this trade, the profit expectation is around 10 to 12 ticks (based on the ATR). The stop, also based on the ATR, is double. Scary, right? But this is only a safety net in case there’s a sudden, and unlikely, catastrophic event. If the profit target does not get hit, we will most likely get out at a smaller loss, break even, or even small profit. You’re taught how to do these other stop strategies in the included live training session. Keep in mind that John Paul is fast-forwarding this video. The BarTimer normally counts down second by second, but you can see it’s sped up in order to show what occurred with the trade more quickly. This trade was good for +2.75 points.
The E-mini S&P, also called S&P E-mini, or simply E-mini, is an index futures security offered by the CME Group and regulated by the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). The E-mini is considered a benchmark of US stock market performance because it consists of various Standard and Poor’s 500 large-cap stocks. On the news, you may see the S&P and wonder how it’s related to the E-mini. Essentially, the E-mini is 1/5 the full S&P that you see on the news. As a futures market, E-mini contracts expire every three months. A new contract is then traded.
Why do people trade the E-mini?
- Low trade costs and greater leverage compared to typical ETFs or stocks (as low as $300 to $500 in some cases, but we recommend a minimum of $4,000 to absorb consecutive losses and learning)
- Minimal bid-ask spread
- Can be traded via buying or selling (short or long)
- Good liquidity and size
- Fast trade executions because the market is entirely electronic
- Regulated by the U.S. CME
The smallest increment on an E-mini chart is called a tick. Each tick is worth $12.50. There are four ticks to a point. Therefore, a point is worth $50. Brokers typically charge less than $5.00 to execute (in and out, also called “round-turn”) each trade. This $5.00 is multiplied by the number of futures contracts being traded. Putting this all together, if you trade one contract and make a profit of 16 ticks, this equates to 4 points, or $200. Since this is one contract, your broker will take about $5.00 from that trade, so you’re left with $195. If you trade two contracts, your profit is $400 before commissions and $390 after commissions. Remember that contracts act as a multiplier.
The E-mini consists of quarterly contracts: March (ESH), June (ESM), September (ESU), and December (ESZ). Some trading platforms, such as NinjaTrader omit the contract month and denote the numerical month value instead. For example, the March contract becomes ES 03-15. On platforms like TradeStation, a trader can specify @ES to monitor price over all contract periods without having to “roll over” to a different period.
Other popular futures markets include the DOW (YM) NASDAQ (NW) and the Russell (TF).
At Day Trade to Win, we focus on intraday trading, which means we look for trades from market open to market close. We do not typically hold positions overnight, and this should certainly be the case for any traders who are trading on margin. In most cases, we hold trades no longer than 20 minutes. We are out of a trade sooner if we make profit via price hitting our profit target or if a stop loss is hit. A stop loss is a safety net price from which you will exit at a loss if price reaches it before hitting your profit target. Our stop loss and profit targets are mostly dynamic and based on market movement. Our trading methods make sense because we trade based on what a given marked can realistically provide.
To avoid costly mistakes beginner traders make, join our next Group Mentorship Program.
Remember, the training in this video does not even scratch the surface of the trading techniques taught in the eight week coaching program known as Mentorship. A new Mentorship class starts today, April 22, 2015. Click here to find out more. We can get you up and running today with the first week’s materials.
Do you make intuitive guesses or blindly trade without having defined trading plan? For starters, it’s important to be aware of upcoming news events. John Paul shows you where to get a news indicator that will show you times high-priority news events will occur. You can then avoid the volatile conditions these news events usually cause. After the news volatility subsides, you can look for a trading opportunity as discussed in this video. Remember the market is a zero-sum game, trying to create equality with buyers and sellers. There is no frequent correlation with positively perceived news driving markets higher or negative news creating bearish conditions.
The Atlas Line produced a short signal at around 10 a.m. EDT. Why? Two consecutive candles plotted below the dashed Atlas Line. Price soon headed short, creating favorable conditions for this trade. If price was to later close twice above the line, then you’d see a long signal.
We know how John Paul uses the ATR to determine the profit target and stop loss on the E-mini. What about the 6E (Euro FX)? At around 40 min in, you’ll see how he performs the calculation by moving the decimal points over.
Later in this recording, you’ll learn some very important advice about trading with ranges and the 0%-50%-100% Fibonacci tool.
Here’s part two of the most recent webinar. Miss the first webinar? Click here to watch. First, we start off with a review of the Super Year. We already had a good trade with a retracement from the previous 50% level for about 22 points around March 16. If price breaks the most recent highs, John Paul expects for another good long trade. Don’t expect the market to go straight up! That’s why we use a large stop. The market rarely goes in one direction consistently. Therefore, your stop loss has to be large enough to allow for regular price movement. What about a time-based stop? Watch the video to find out.
You’ll also see the first Atlas Line signal of the day plotted live. It’s configured to play a doorbell sound when a Dbl Bar Long or Dbl Bar Short trade appears. The profit target for the first Atlas Line Dbl Bar Long is 2.25 points (rounded down from 2.4) or 2097.75. The first stop in place would be the catastrophic stop (4.5 points – 2x the ATR). If the profit target or catastrophic stop is not hit, then we’ll manage the trade by getting out at four candles (20 min.) on a 5-min chart. In 20 min. time, that could be a small profit, break-even, or loss. A prove-it stop is another type of stop whereby a closing candle on the opposite site is the point at which you close your position. You’ll have to watch the video to see if this trade works.
One of the things John Paul teaches in Power Price Action and Mentorship is trend identification. A trend on a 5-min chart looks different from trends on an hourly, daily, or weekly chart. For 5-min charts and the E-mini S&P, John Paul uses the 6/6 rule to identify trends. Six candles plus six points occurring is a trend. This is explained further in the video.
Near the end of the video, you’ll see how to calculate the ATR value on the 6E and how the Atlas Line performed.
Click here to find out more about our next Group Mentorship session that begins April 22, 2015. All courses and software are included.
You may recall a live webinar conducted by John Paul on January 8, 2015 and another webinar with NinjaTrader on January, 9, 2015. In these webinars, John Paul taught how to look for specific setups as per the 2015 Super Year strategy.
It turns out that today, price surpassed the strategy’s 50% point, thus confirming a valid entry. John Paul entered long on this move up. From the screenshot, you can see this is a large move with a large trade: +21.5 points. With 10 contracts in the trade, the profit is currently above $10k. The expectation is for the E-mini S&P 500 to reach the prior highs from December 26, 2014. If you’re Long on this trade, trail a stop to protect yourself.
We recommend watching the video again so you can be on the lookout for future entries…
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Click this screenshot for a larger view
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Last week, John Paul conducted a live webinar showing traders that 2015 is a “Super Year.” Historically, years ending with a “5” (e.g. 2015, 2005, 1995, 1985, etc.) all the way back to the opening of the financial markets have exhibited consistent behavior. What is it? All of these Super Years ended at a greater price than the price at which they opened. That’s right – they trended bullishly. How can you take advantage of this? In this video, John Paul shows you how to spot breakout moments and position yourself for success. And of course, it’s all based on price action.
When following along, you will be using a clean chart and just the ATR (Average True Range) with a Period value of 4. This period value of 4 means that the green line on the bottom of the chart will be based on the last four bars. The last four bars can be minutes, days, weeks, or years depending on your chart time frame.
With this Super Year method, you will be looking for long trades using two methods. In the first method, you’ll spot the highs and enter above the most recent highs, about two points above. Watch the video for more details and learn the second method!
Remember, Group Mentorship begins in just a couple of days – January 14, 2015. Enroll today and get the ATO (At the Open) course ahead of time. You’ll be able to study and practice in advance. During the eight weeks of training, you will be provided all of our courses and software. John Paul will train you twice a week and build your understanding of how to successfully trade the E-mini and other markets. Click here to find out more and submit your despot to enroll.
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In this video, John Paul uses the Atlas Line and takes a loss and then a win. October 13, 2014 was a very volatile day with many trading opportunities. It’s important to stay out of the market when it’s too volatile and too slow.
In the beginning of the day at around 10 a.m. US/Eastern, a Short signal appeared with price at 1895.25. John Paul followed the Atlas Line’s direction, placing a Short trade. The profit target and stop loss were preconfigured in the ATM strategy, allowing for the horizontal green and red lines you see on the chart. With the Atlas Line, you are always watching for the first stop loss rule to take place. Since the market is so volatile, a four point catastrophic stop loss is used, which is based on the market’s ATR value at the time of entry. The prove-it stop rule was hit first with price closing on the opposite side of the Atlas Line on the 10:05 bar. John Paul then manually closed out of the trade with a loss.
Next, it was time to wait for another Atlas Line trade. John Paul was waiting for two consecutive closing bars above or below the Atlas Line, which would generate a Double Bar Long or Double Bar Short trade, respectively.
Another short trade occurred again. You’ll have to watch the video to see what happens! Remember that the Atlas Line is included with the Mentorship Program that begins October 20, 2014. You can also purchase the Atlas Line separately:
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On October 9, 2014, John Paul presented his style of price action trading to a large audience of traders. Quite a few traders followed along and placed the live trades, which worked to their favor. Many questions were asked and answered during this live webinar event.
In the video:
• The importance of proof and reading price action
• How to use the ATR to gauge whether you should be trading
• Common mistakes traders make and how to correct these mistakes
• Atlas Line signals on multiple markets
• First live trade at about 10 min. in
• Why limit the amount of time you hold a trade?
• Prove-it stop and other stop strategies used with the Atlas Line
• Retracements and re-entering trades
• Second live trade at about 39 min. in
• Why use minute charts?
• Assessing current conditions and ATR in markets besides the E-mini S&P
• Plotting of the Atlas Line Strength Trades
• Third live trade at about 1:09 min. in
• Questions and answers about products and the strategies
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Here’s an update to last week’s video where John Paul said to watch out for a potential E-mini breakout. There’s been a lot of talk about a forthcoming reversal in the market. Load up a 1-week chart in your platform of choice and look for the large red candle for the first week of August. Based on this weekly movement, many institutional traders, trading advisers and individual traders likely went short. The following week, the market went down a bit more, came back up and closed as a doji candle. There was no confirmation whether the market wants to go higher or lower. We’ve started a new week here on August 15, so the currently plotting bullish candle may be a sign that the market will go up and test the most recent “high area” of 1978. The market may turn around on a dime and drop later today, next week, etc., but watch what happens if price hits the 1978 level.