All About The Big Picture….
2015 is shaping up to be a somewhat-volatile year for the gold market. January brought on a fairly sharp uptick in prices following alarming lows late in 2015. And yet, the recovery already appears to be on hold, with prices having dropped a bit in recent weeks (though not to the low points of last November). Naturally, there’s a great deal of disagreement among investors and financial publications as to where gold prices are going from here. BusinessInsider.com posted a widely read report citing a very negative outlook on the price of gold from Credit Suisse, which named strength in the U.S. dollar and the rise of equities as financial hedges as the reasons for bearish predictions. Even so, plenty of independent analysts have forecasted a relatively strong (though not lucrative) year for gold.
Given this level of uncertainty, now seems an appropriate time to revisit some of the strategies involved in playing the gold market. Back in 2012 we posted an article on the Gold Fix, essentially outlining the process by which six specific London bankers meet to manipulate the price of gold. Full details are in the article, but it basically goes like this: these men meet and state values of gold they wish to buy or sell until the group reaches a net sum of zero. Independent interests are naturally at play in this process, and for that reason the meetings add an element of unpredictability to day’s end gold prices. This is the case regardless of larger trends in the market.
Before anybody gets too worked up over this manipulative process, however, consider that it’s mostly relevant in day-to-day trends. This can perhaps have a strong impact on gold futures and ETF traders, but for the gold market as it pertains to the actual purchase of precious metal, daily manipulation shouldn’t be as significant a factor.
To clarify, many investors view the concept of gold investment as the purchase and storage of gold bullion—a process that generally takes place online at independent gold markets where prices are updated in accordance with world standards. However, the idea with investments like these, as opposed to playing futures or ETF markets, is long-term holding. Online marketplace BullionVault.com manages over $2 billion in assets at any given time with this practice and encourages investors to feel confident with long-term holdings by offering a choice of secure vaults around the world for the actual storage of physical gold. While the site also allows for immediate purchase and sale of bullion to suit investor needs, the idea of storing metal caters to a more far-sighted approach that’s typical of this corner of the gold market.
It’s ultimately clear that there are two different sets of strategies to apply depending on your brand of gold investment. For those who take a day-trading approach to the market, gold-fixing manipulations add a degree of uncertainty to an investment that’s already facing increasing instability because of external factors. And for those looking more to long-term storage of physical gold, larger market factors such as those pointed to by Credit Suisse in its 2015 outlook will be of the greatest concern.
For most strategic gold investors, it’s the latter that should be more relevant. While gold certainly can be day-traded, and even online vaults cater to this style of trading, the more traditional approach to this particular commodity has always been long-term. People generally invest in gold as a hedge against deflation in currency values. If prices rise, it’s because of varying unease and uncertainty in world economies. So even in a 2015 that’s looking difficult to predict for gold, keep your eye on the big picture. Gold fixing is impossible to predict and shouldn’t have a strong impact on a long-term investment, and week-to-week shifts in prices as we’ve seen early in 2015 will blend into the larger trends of the year as time moves on. Investing in the first place is a decision for each individual investor, but in gold, reacting to small shifts is foolish once an investment is made.
For new and existing Day Trade to Win clients, this video tutorial will show you exactly how to get up and running with our software for NinjaTrader right away.
Many of our day trading methods include software programs (indicators) for NinjaTrader. In order for these indicators to work with NinjaTrader, you need to follow the steps shown in this video. Once your computer’s license has been activated, you will be able to install and use our indicators on your charts.
These instructions are intended for new customers and existing customers who are using a new computer.
Here are the steps in the video:
1. Open up NinjaTrader > go to NinjaTrader’s Control Center > go to Help > 3rd party licensing
2. For Vendor name, type in “DayTradeToWin” without quotes with the exact capitalization shown
3. For User defined ID, type in your first name and last name without spaces, e.g. “JohnSmith” without quotes
4. Click Submit
5. Your Machine ID license will be generated below > select the entire license with your mouse OR right-click and Select All > Right click > Copy
6. Go to your email and compose a new message to [email protected]
7. Use a subject like “NinjaTrader License”
8. In the body of the email, right-click > Paste (your NinjaTrader license should appear as copied from the previous step)
9. Send the email
10. Await our response to confirm your license has been activated
All of our courses and software with lifetime licenses are provided in the Mentorship Program. Click here to find out about the next class.
» Sign up for Feb. 4 Group Mentorship «
In this video, John Paul goes over the entries and market expectations with the NinjaTrader audience for trading this unique Super Year method in 2015.
Remember the NinjaTrader webinar we did a couple weeks ago? Here’s the recording. It’s another look at the 2015 Super Year. Why is 2015 a Super Year? Because the last digit of the year is a five. John Paul believes the chart itself can tell you exactly what you need to know. The market likes to test where it’s previously been. With the Super Year strategy, highs are tested or exceeded within 55 days on average. If you’re trading during a Super Year or the January Effect has indicated the year should be closing higher than it opened, the bias is long. Watch the video to piece it all together.
You may recall a live webinar conducted by John Paul on January 8, 2015 and another webinar with NinjaTrader on January, 9, 2015. In these webinars, John Paul taught how to look for specific setups as per the 2015 Super Year strategy.
It turns out that today, price surpassed the strategy’s 50% point, thus confirming a valid entry. John Paul entered long on this move up. From the screenshot, you can see this is a large move with a large trade: +21.5 points. With 10 contracts in the trade, the profit is currently above $10k. The expectation is for the E-mini S&P 500 to reach the prior highs from December 26, 2014. If you’re Long on this trade, trail a stop to protect yourself.
We recommend watching the video again so you can be on the lookout for future entries…
Click here to watch the video
Click this screenshot for a larger view
» Sign up for Jan. 14 Group Mentorship «
Last week, John Paul conducted a live webinar showing traders that 2015 is a “Super Year.” Historically, years ending with a “5” (e.g. 2015, 2005, 1995, 1985, etc.) all the way back to the opening of the financial markets have exhibited consistent behavior. What is it? All of these Super Years ended at a greater price than the price at which they opened. That’s right – they trended bullishly. How can you take advantage of this? In this video, John Paul shows you how to spot breakout moments and position yourself for success. And of course, it’s all based on price action.
When following along, you will be using a clean chart and just the ATR (Average True Range) with a Period value of 4. This period value of 4 means that the green line on the bottom of the chart will be based on the last four bars. The last four bars can be minutes, days, weeks, or years depending on your chart time frame.
With this Super Year method, you will be looking for long trades using two methods. In the first method, you’ll spot the highs and enter above the most recent highs, about two points above. Watch the video for more details and learn the second method!
Remember, Group Mentorship begins in just a couple of days – January 14, 2015. Enroll today and get the ATO (At the Open) course ahead of time. You’ll be able to study and practice in advance. During the eight weeks of training, you will be provided all of our courses and software. John Paul will train you twice a week and build your understanding of how to successfully trade the E-mini and other markets. Click here to find out more and submit your despot to enroll.
John Paul just wrapped up today’s webinar, but you can catch him live again tomorrow when NinjaTrader hosts, “A Highly Accurate Trading Method for 2015″. He will be presenting the 2015 “Super” strategy again, demonstrating its performance with exact setup and entry rules.
That’s right – another live webinar tomorrow!
Event: NinjaTrader Hosts “A Highly Accurate Trading Method for 2015″
When: Friday, January 9, 2015 @ 4:15 p.m. EST (UTC-5)
Click here to register for the live webinar
Don’t miss out!
And as for today’s webinar recording, we should have it up sometime tomorrow or over the weekend, the latest.
Remember to join the January 14, 2015 Group Mentorship Program to take advantage of eight weeks of live training with John Paul. You’ll learn all of our courses and software through the eight weeks. Click here for more information.
Webinar: Free Price Action Strategy for 2015
When: Thursday, January 8, 2015
@ 5:00 p.m. EST (UTC-5)
Click here to join the live webinar
In this webinar, John Paul will show you a trading strategy for the new year that has an amazing track record. It’s entirely based on price action – you won’t need to download or buy any software. Learn the method from this webinar and then apply it to your charts immediately. In addition, you’ll get a peek at his other price action strategies. Start the new year off knowing where the market is likely to head!
Also, the next Group Mentorship is just around the corner – Jan. 14, 2015. Class will be on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 3:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. EST (UTC-5). All our courses and software are provided with eight weeks of coaching with Day Trade to Win founder John Paul. There’s still time for you to enroll and receive the first week’s course – click here for details.
Here are the CME holiday hours for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday observed on January 19, 2015.
All times provided are in EST (UTC-5).
Monday, January 19
CME Equity Indices, Currency Futures, and Energy & Metal Futures
ES, YM, NQ, 6E, 6A, 6B, CL, GC, QM, etc.
Early close at 1:00 p.m. EST
Trading resumes at 6:00 p.m. EST
Tuesday, January 20
CME Equity Indices, Currency Futures, and Energy & Metal Futures
ES, YM, NQ, 6E, 6A, 6B, CL, GC, QM, etc.
Normal trading hours
As always, you can find the CME’s calendar page here or this specific announcement here.
If you’ve been thinking about purchasing a NinjaTrader license, now is probably the best time to do so. Very seldom do we see NinjaTrader providing discounts for licenses. In case you did not receive their recent promotional email, here’s their offer:
Single Broker Lifetime License: Only $895 ($100 savings)
Multi Broker Lifetime License: Only $1195 ($300 savings)
Upgrade to a Multi-Broker Lifetime License: Only $300 ($200 savings)
*These discounts end Friday, December 19.
Why do you need to purchase a NinjaTrader license? You’re right – NinjaTrader is free to use for paper trading. However, as soon as you want to trade with real money, you have to purchase/lease a live license from NinjaTrader to “unlock” NinjaTrader’s ability to trade with real money. Note that to trade with real money, you will still need a funded account with a broker and have that connection set up in NinjaTrader. Purchasing a NinjaTrader license gets you halfway to truly engaging with the markets.
If you have any questions regarding these discounts or how credits from your existing lease may be applied to a new purchase, please send an email to [email protected]
We get asked the question, “How do I customize the appearance of the drawing tools in NinjaTrader?” on occasion. Traders want to use a consistent configuration for drawing tools such as the Text tool, Horizontal Line tool, Fibonacci Retracements tool, and others. For example, you might want to have a horizontal line default to a specific width and color because the current default value just won’t do.
Probably the best example we can show on how to customize the default drawing tool values applies to the Fibonacci Retracement tool. There are a good number of settings, and traders who use Fibs will likely want to change them.
1. First, it’s important to know where to find the drawing tools. On the top of a chart, look for the pencil icon and click it. You’ll get a drop-down list of drawing tools.
2. Click the Fibonacci Retracements Tool. Your cursor icon will become a pen instead of a pointer. Click and drag on the chart to draw the Fibonacci Retracement. With this particular tool, it works best if you click and drag in a diagonal direction.
3. With the Fibonacci Retracement now appearing on your chart, click it until you see the black squares, indicating active selection. Right-click the Fibonacci tool and select Properties.
4. Now that the Properties window is displayed, make your changes. Once satisfied, right-click an empty gray area of the Properties window and you should see Manage Templates appear. Click Manage Templates. You can save over the default setting by leaving “Default” in the list box and clicking Save.
See John Paul’s reference screenshots below (click for full size).