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2012 Trading Predictions

I (John Paul) may not have a crystal ball, but I have a prediction of where 2012 will end up. How can I be so sure? Although you may follow my real-tme price action methods of day trading, know that historical analysis has played a major role in my trading career. Most traders are unaware of one strategy in particular that relates to the month of January. Going back in history, you can verify that the first month of the year is an accurate predictor of how the year will end (up or down) in the E-Mini and related indices. As an example, the last day of trading in January 2012 closed higher as compared to the opening price on January 3, 2012. This gives us a strong indication that 2012 will end higher (in December) as a bullish year because of January’s activity.

How can you take advantage of this? You can buy the December contract right now. You can buy options far into the future. You can even buy the cash market and sit on it. Analysts use this method every year as part of their strategies.

Another forecasting method that most traders are unaware of is that every year ending in a 5 is a bullish year for financials. You can verify this by going back in history to the early 1900s. Without fail, a bullish year occurs when the last digit ends in with a 5. Without requiring advanced mathematics, the next year this is expected to occur is 2015.

Conclusion – the year 2012 is expected to end bullish as compared to its opening price in indices. The year 2015 is expected to be bullish.

3 Comments

  1. The January Effect – Was John Paul’s Crystal Ball Correct?
    Dec 19, 2012 @ 16:58:27

    […] that 2012 will end higher (in December) as a bullish year because of January’s activity.” Here’s our original post with the prediction. Here’s our follow-up post from back in […]

  2. Positive Housing Numbers Provide Perspective
    Sep 19, 2012 @ 15:54:05

    […] back to my posts in January of this year, you’ll see my prediction. In summary, the rule of the January Effect says the bullish or bearish movement of month of January dictates (with decent accuracy) that the […]

  3. January Prediction Still On Point
    Aug 09, 2012 @ 14:38:07

    […] »See the Jan 30, 2012 Blog Post “…the last day of trading in January 2012 closed higher as compared to the opening price on January 3, 2012. This gives us a strong indication that 2012 will end higher (in December) as a bullish year because of January’s activity.” […]

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