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Economic Uncertainty Benefits Futures Traders

eurozone tradingIn these times of great economic uncertainty, Germany is in the spotlight as the country assumed to take part in saving its debt-ridden Eurozone counterparts from total collapse. Due to a weakening Euro, German exports became more attractive to the world marketplace. Investors, noticing the decline of Greece and Italy, then invested in Germany. This transfer of money has made borrowing much easier in Germany compared to other Eurozone countries. In many ways, the European debt crisis has made many Germans wealthy; however, there is concern about its financial role in assisting the country’s less fortunate neighbors.

Italy’s newly appointed lead economist, Mario Monti, is said to share Germany’s modus operandi in terms of economic principles. These principles consist of a capitalistic free market, fair competition and social equity. As stated by an Italian newspaper journalist, “His (Monti’s) idea of a social market economy is very near the German model. You do have competition, you have capitalism. But at the same time, the government is very active in the economy, you have a generous welfare state.”

The U.S. dollar is considered to be the world’s benchmark for comparing the relative costs of country exports. In many cases, the values of non-U.S. currencies are fixed to a set level to reduce export costs for these countries. A perfect example of such price fixation comes from a report released just yesterday (Nov. 14, 2011):

“The yen dropped as low as 79.55 against the dollar following the intervention (by Japanese authorities) after it reached a record high of 75.31 yen earlier that day. On Monday the dollar was around 77 yen.”

On the other side of the coin, there are also those who want to shift away from the Euro. Instead of a total (and likely chaotic) dismantling into self-sustained country units, the belief is that a gradual breakup will ease debt management. Countries would then be able to manage their own currencies and exports. In fact, a British CEO is offering a $400,000 prize (second only to the Nobel in terms of monetary reward) to the person who comes up with the best plan for one or more countries to leave the euro.

What can we learn from these recent events?

  • The world operates on a delicate framework of money deliberately pushed around by governments and private financial institutions.
  • Exports are used to determine a country’s financial health and worth in comparison to others
  • There is great disparity in proposals for coming up with a solution to debt resolution

Since we at Day Trade to Win are primarily futures traders, we can profit in the short term with minimal leverage, unlike stocks. Stocks are usually longer-term and are less liquid and are less affordable (more expensive). Additionally, our trading is based on price action. We trade real-time conditions. If the Euro is on the ride down, there is usually a direct correlation in the E-Mini S&P, and we’re entering to make profit all the way down. We do trade the Euro and other currency futures as well, but this is just an example of our preferred market (the E-Mini). This is why we’re seeing an influx of interest coming from former stock traders who want to get in on futures volatility. For the next year at least, it looks as though the ride will continue.

What are your thoughts?

  • Is the manipulation of currency values essential for maintaining worldwide economic stability?
  • Will there be a ‘trigger’ moment that will cause Eurozone countries to abandon the Euro? If so, do you think this trigger event will be social, political or (hopefully not) a natural disaster or act of war?
  • Is there a fix to the world’s current economic tension? Is this the cause of an increasing population and income disparity?

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